Nike: Down 75%, insiders are buying

=== SUMMARY === - Author argues Nike’s 75% decline stems from prior overvaluation and a self-inflicted over‑shift to DTC/online, which hurt operating margins. - New/returning CEO Elliott Hill is working to reverse course, and insider buying is cited as a confidence signal. - The market is skeptical that Nike can return to modest growth with 10%+ operating margins — that gap is the potential opportunity. - Quality assessment: Well-structured value/Due-Diligence-style write-up, but it is more turnaround narrative than rigorous valuation model; actionable but speculative. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === NKE - LONG | confidence: 0.55 | sentiment: +0.30 Speaker: u/k_ristovski Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Nike is down ~75%, insiders are buying, and a proven insider CEO is attempting to repair the brand and margins. 2. THE BRIDGE: If management can stabilize revenue and restore a 10%+ operating margin, the current pessimistic base creates room for a multi-year re-rating. 3. THE VERDICT: A cautious long/watch idea driven by insider signals and a potential operational turnaround, not by current financial strength. 4. RISKS: Continued share loss to Hoka/On, brand moat erosion, and a market that still sees NKE as expensive (~25 fwd P/E) with weak FCF yield. Timeframe: medium-term / long-term Key Points: - Down 75% from highs; insider buying signals value zone - CEO Elliott Hill reversing DTC-heavy strategy - Market doubts recovery to 10%+ operating margin - Brand competitiveness still a major open question - Not statistically cheap; requires execution improvement === COMMENTS SUMMARY === The community is broadly bearish, arguing Nike has been a “turnaround story” for years without proof, and that brand coolness has been lost to Hoka and On. Commenters also note the stock still trades at ~25 forward earnings with a low FCF yield, and that the ~3.9% dividend is less attractive than risk-free cash — making the risk/reward unappealing despite the insider buying.