Netflix - what am I missing?

=== SUMMARY === - Author models NFLX with 12-13% revenue growth, >28% EBIT margin, 4% terminal growth, yet DCF shows ~26% overvalued. - Main disagreement is WACC: author calculates 10.8% vs common valuation sites using 7-8%, driven by beta/equity cost assumptions. - Quality assessment: Thoughtful valuation exercise but essentially a calibration question, not a full actionable DD thesis. === SENTIMENT === MIXED === TRADE IDEAS === NFLX - WATCH | confidence: 0.50 | sentiment: -0.30 Speaker: u/Intelligent_Gap2495 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Author's DCF at 10.8% WACC implies NFLX is 26% overvalued, while standard valuation inputs use 7-8% WACC. 2. THE BRIDGE: The entire bearish signal depends on WACC; if the author's higher WACC is correct, the stock screens expensive, creating a potential short/watch setup. 3. THE VERDICT: The author is uncertain and asking what they are missing, so this is a watch item rather than a high-conviction short. 4. RISKS: WACC may be overstated due to beta/tax/risk-free rate assumptions; NFLX's growth and margin expansion could justify a higher multiple. Timeframe: long-term Key Points: - Valuation gap driven by WACC, not fundamentals - Author uses 10.8% WACC vs consensus 7-8% - Beta of 1.51 may overstate cost of equity - Revenue growth and margins are solid bull case - No explicit short position stated; watch only === TRADE IDEAS === No actionable trade ideas in this post beyond the WATCH-level NFLX valuation debate.