FUBO — Pre-Earnings Analysis

The stock is trading at $8.33-8.65. Including Disney’s 70% stake, the look-through enterprise value is roughly $1 billion, while the company generates about $6.2 billion in annual revenue. That values the business at just 0.16 times revenue. At the current valuation, each subscriber is valued at roughly $140. Pay-TV transactions have often valued subscribers at between $250 and $400, even in deals involving declining satellite businesses. Fubo operates Hulu + Live TV. Disney currently reimburses 95% of the programming costs Fubo pays on its behalf, rising to 97.5% in 2027 and 99% from 2028. On an estimated $4.7 billion cost base, that reduces the annual shortfall from about $235 million today to $118 million in 2027 and $47 million from 2028. That is a contracted $188 million annual earnings improvement without subscriber growth. The quarterly net loss improved from $40.9 million a year ago to $6.2 million, while adjusted EBITDA reached $37.7 million. Management guides to $80 million to $100 million in full-year adjusted EBITDA, but Fubo has already generated about $79.1 million in the first half. That leaves only $20.9 million needed in the second half to reach the top of the range, making the guidance appear conservative despite expected marketing and integration costs. A guidance increase, a move toward the top of the range or a full-year beat could therefore become an additional earnings catalyst and strengthen the credibility of the $300 million 2028 EBITDA target. Alisa Bowen became CEO on July 10 after ten years at Disney, most recently as president of Disney+. She helped build and scale Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ internationally and brings nearly three decades of experience in subscriber growth and profitability. Founder David Gandler stepped down as CEO and left the board. The stock has been pushed lower on below-average volume. Average daily volume is 1.47 million shares, while recent sessions have traded between 500,000 and 1.3 million. At the same time, I have repeatedly seen signs of iceberg buying. Short interest is 24.8% of the 28.25 million-share free float, with 4.14 days to cover. The short position has remained broadly stable over the past three months at between 6.6 million and 7.3 million shares. The median analyst price target is $17, with no sell ratings. If Disney ever bought the remaining 30%, it could not legally do so below fair value. Using industry subscriber valuations of $250 to $400, the Class A stake could be worth roughly $14 to $23 per share. There is no indication that such a transaction is being considered, so this is not the core thesis, only optionality. Position: 2,609 shares at an effective cost basis of $8.74 This is not financial advice.