=== SUMMARY ===
- The author bets against SpaceX (ticker SPCX) with put option spreads, arguing the stock is massively overvalued based on extreme P/S ratios, unprofitability, and impending dilution from lock-up expirations.
- Thesis: artificial scarcity from a tiny float will end as insider shares flood the market, causing multiple compression and panic selling; catalysts include first earnings call, regulatory scrutiny, and AI hype rotation.
- Quality assessment: speculative DD with detailed financial comparisons and catalyst timeline, but relies on assumptions about market psychology and ignores index fund inflows; moderate research but high risk.
=== SENTIMENT ===
BEARISH
=== TRADE IDEAS ===
SPCX - SHORT | confidence: 0.85 | sentiment: -0.90
Speaker: u/Margin_Call_Me_Maybe
Thesis:
1. THE FACT: SpaceX has a P/S ratio of ~145x vs. aerospace peers at ~1.6-1.9x and even high-growth tech at 7-20x; revenue is ~$20B with minimal profits, while the stock is valued at $2.86T.
2. THE BRIDGE: Lock-up expirations will increase float from 5% (640M shares) to 1.5B in September and 13B in December, overwhelming demand. Combined with catalyst events (earnings, regulatory scrutiny), this could trigger a severe selloff.
3. THE VERDICT: Short SPCX via put spreads to profit from the inevitable revaluation as artificial scarcity ends and insiders diversify.
4. RISKS: Index funds and passive inflows could sustain prices longer; Elon Musk’s unpredictable actions may cause rallies; the AI bubble could continue inflating, supporting Starlink hype.
Timeframe: medium-term (September–December 2026)
Key Points:
- Extreme P/S of 145x vs aerospace peers.
- Tiny float will expand 27x by Dec.
- Catalysts: earnings, lock-up, regulatory scrutiny.
- Index fund arbitrage may delay crash.
- Short position with defined risk via puts.
=== COMMENTS SUMMARY ===
The top comment (+24) references Bill Gates betting against Elon Musk (likely Tesla short squeeze), implying that shorting Elon-related stock
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▶ Полный текст поста
Little $1,700 bet against SpaceX now that options are live.
17 total puts with September and December spreads.
General thought is that the stock could crash to $20 and still be worth more than Boeing and Lockheed Martin combined.
SpaceX is unprofitable, with an incredibly high price to sales ratio of 145x. Revenue is miniscule at \~$20 billion. Starlink is amazing in its own right, but rocketry is growing revenue slowly and AI is burning money.
For reference:
\- Lockheed Martin has a P/S ratio of \~1.6x
\- Boeing has a P/S ratio of \~1.9x
\- NVIDIA has a P/S ratio of \~20x
\- Meta has a P/S ratio of \~7x
\- Tesla has a P/S ratio of \~15x
SpaceX is insanely overvalued, an order of magnitude moreso than Tesla. The market just needs a shock to realize it.
Main catalysts are:
\- First earnings call (September 2nd)
\- 90-day insider lock-up expiration (September 10th)
\- Regulatory scrutiny over accounting and valuation metrics (shout-out Elizabeth Warren)
Further out ones include:
\- Anthropic IPO
\- OpenAI IPO
These two could funnel hype away, or pop the AI bubble. If the AI leg of SpaceX dies in the water, I could absolutely see valuation returning to a typical 200 to 400 billion (still massive for aerospace).
\- 180-day insider lock-up expiration (December 9th).
And of course any wild erratic actions from Elon could tank the stock.
It is worth mentioning index fund risk - billions of dollars WILL funnel into the stock soon.
However, I believe active fund managers are currently buying shares to sell to the index funds when they push the market up. Arbitrage.
Institutional frontrunners will leave afterwards, in my opinion. In August I believe there will be a severe lack of demand as a result, and the lock-up release in September will showcase that in full force.
*The Float Reality Check:*
The stock is currently skyrocketing because the float is so small.
Today, the float is 5%, about 640 million shares.
- In September, the float will skyrocket to 1.5 billion shares.
- In December, the float will grow to 13 billion shares.
TLDR:
Little short position of a cash-burning hardware business masquerading as a $2.86T tech monopoly.
The goal: profit from panic selling and multiple compression cycles as artificial scarcity ends as a result of closing lock-up periods and liquidity shifts to pure AI plays. And there's always a chance the AI bubble pops.
We'll see how it plays out... The market can stay irrational, but it can't invent liquidity to absorb a 13 billion share flood.
Reality is going to strike hard, and insiders are going to want to diversify.
Manage your positions ruthlessly, everyone.
SpaceX имеет коэффициент P/S около 145x по сравнению с 1,6-1,9x у аналогов в аэрокосмической отрасли и даже 7-20x у высокотехнологичных компаний с высокими темпами роста; выручка составляет около 20 млрд долларов при минимальной прибыли, в то время как стоимость акций оценивается в 2,86 трлн долларов. Истечение периодов блокировки (lock-up) увеличит объем акций в свободном обращении с 5% (640 млн акций) до 1,5 млрд в сентябре и 13 млрд в декабре, что превысит спрос. В сочетании с каталитическими событиями (отчетность, регуляторные проверки) это может спровоцировать масштабную распродажу. Открывайте короткие позиции по SPCX через пут-спреды, чтобы получить прибыль от неизбежной переоценки, когда искусственный дефицит закончится, а инсайдеры начнут диверсифицировать свои активы. Индексные фонды и пассивные притоки капитала могут поддерживать цены дольше; непредсказуемые действия Илона Маска могут вызвать ралли; пузырь ИИ может продолжить раздуваться, поддерживая ажиотаж вокруг Starlink.
This Reddit post, published June 16, 2026,
features u/Margin_Call_Me_Maybe
discussing SPCX.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.