I’ve been watching the SpaceX IPO debate here on Reddit and news. I hear the concerns.
Everyone is arguing about whether SpaceX is overvalued or whether Elon is a genius.
That’s not what I’m interested in.
In cybersecurity, we use the Swiss Cheese Model. A single gap usually doesn’t cause a major incident. Problems happen when multiple conditions line up at the same time.
That’s what caught my attention with this IPO.
A low float by itself isn’t unusual.
Retail investors getting access isn’t unusual.
Index funds buying shares isn’t unusual.
Dual-class shares aren’t unusual.
Insider lockups aren’t unusual.
But when you stack all of them together, it creates a very specific setup. According to ChatGPT this is a unique combo.
To me, this doesn’t look like a pure Facebook comparison or a pure Rivian comparison. It’s a mix of several IPOs we’ve seen before.
Facebook got hammered after its IPO and lockup periods, then went on to become one of the best-performing companies in history.
Rivian had a great story, a great product, and plenty of smart investors behind it. The valuation just got way ahead of what the business could support at the time.
The reason I’m not rushing to either conclusion is because the real test hasn’t happened yet.
These are the dates I’m watching:
**Late July / Early August** – First earnings report and first insider unlock. Do insiders hold or start taking money off the table?
**September through November** – Multiple lockup expirations. This is where we’ll see what happens when more shares hit the market and scarcity starts disappearing.
**December** – By then we’ll have a much better idea whether demand is still there once the IPO excitement fades.
**2027** – This is the big one. Not “can SpaceX build rockets?” We already know they can. The question is whether Starlink and the rest of the business can generate enough revenue and cash flow to support a valuation north of $2 trillion.
Would be interested on what others think.