=== SUMMARY ===
- The post projects Reddit (RDDT) reaching $425 per share by next year, based on FY2026 net income of ~$1.02B and aggressive growth assumptions.
- The author’s thesis relies on 45% top-line growth, 32.5% net margins, a 45x P/E multiple, and additional AI licensing deals (Google, Anthropic, OpenAI) worth $450M total.
- Quality assessment: This is speculative but partially data-backed DD; the author provides specific revenue, margin, and tax assumptions, but the 45x P/E and 45% growth for a maturing social media platform are aggressive and not conservative.
=== SENTIMENT ===
BULLISH
=== TRADE IDEAS ===
TICKER - RDDT - LONG | confidence: 0.75 | sentiment: +0.80
Speaker: u/Salt-Maize787
Thesis:
1. THE FACT: Reddit’s FY2026 net income projected at $1.02B; author strips out $100M AI deal and applies 30% tax to get $995M net income with 32.5% margins.
2. THE BRIDGE: Additional $450M in AI deals from Google, Anthropic, OpenAI (after 30% tax = $315M net) would boost total net income to $1.81B, supporting a 45x P/E → $83.2B market cap → $428 share price.
3. THE VERDICT: The author believes Reddit’s scalable ad model and AI data-licensing revenue create a near-term triple-up opportunity.
4. RISKS: Growth slowing below 45%, AI deals not renewed at stated values, multiple compression if interest rates rise or earnings disappoint, margin erosion from higher content moderation/costs.
Timeframe: medium-term (next year)
Key Points:
- Price target $425 from $181 (137% upside)
- Relies on 45% revenue growth assumption
- AI deals add $315M net income
- Uses 45x P/E on high-growth metrics
- Scalable business model supports margins
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▶ Полный текст поста
For full-year 2026, this fiscal year, Reddit is projected to have **$1.02 billion in net income** and **$3.23 billion** in revenue. Let’s strip out the current AI deal of **$100 million** and assume a **30% tax rate**. That would bring net income to about **$995** million, giving them margins of **32.5%.**
Let’s say growth slows down to **45% (Which I don't think it will)**, which is well below what they are currently growing at. That would bring revenue up to **$4.6 billion.** Applying a **32.5% margin** gets you **$1.495 billion** in net income.
These are the assumptions I’m willing to bet on because Reddit’s business model is very scalable. They do not need to increase costs significantly to bring in more advertisers, so they're more than likely going to be able to continue with the same margins. A **45x P/E ratio** is not ridiculous when the company is growing top-line revenue by **45%**, not including the **AI deal** with **Apple** growing at **18.6%** and having a **35.5 P/E ratio.**
Now let's include the new and potential **AI deals of Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI** of **$150 million EACH;** based on **every piece of information**, it is very likely that these deals are renewed at a total value of $**450 million,** which goes straight to the bottom line. Let's assume that there's a **tax rate of 30%**, so the total amount it would go to net income would be **$315 million.**
Bringing the total net income to **$1.81 billion,** multiply by a **45 p/e** ratio = **83.2 B** market cap by **NEXT YEAR**, or a 137% change if these AI deals go through, and a share price of **$428** by **NEXT YEAR.**
Reddit’s FY2026 net income projected at $1.02B; author strips out $100M AI deal and applies 30% tax to get $995M net income with 32.5% margins. Additional $450M in AI deals from Google, Anthropic, OpenAI (after 30% tax = $315M net) would boost total net income to $1.81B, supporting a 45x P/E → $83.2B market cap → $428 share price. The author believes Reddit’s scalable ad model and AI data-licensing revenue create a near-term triple-up opportunity. Growth slowing below 45%, AI deals not renewed at stated values, multiple compression if interest rates rise or earnings disappoint, margin erosion from higher content moderation/costs.
This Reddit post, published June 15, 2026,
features u/Salt-Maize787
discussing RDDT.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.