14 Investment write-ups to look

u/Away_Definition5829 · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · 09 июня 2026, 04:45 · ⬆ 21 очк. · 💬 4 комментариев | Открыть на Reddit ↗

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=== SUMMARY === - Post aggregates 14 investment write-ups from Substack authors, covering value plays across Americas, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific. - Theses range from deep value (low P/E, net cash) to special situations (turnaround, monopoly discount, regulatory moats). - Quality is high: each summary references specific valuations, financial data, and catalysts; however, the post is a curated list, not original analysis. === SENTIMENT === MIXED === TRADE IDEAS === EDRE MC - LONG | confidence: 0.90 | sentiment: +0.85 Speaker: u/Away_Definition5829 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: eDreams has 7.9M Prime subscribers, EBITDA up 74% over nine months, and management buying stock at P/E 5.1x. 2. THE BRIDGE: The -64% drawdown creates a deep value entry point; the underlying subscription business is growing rapidly while the market remains focused on past losses. 3. THE VERDICT: At 5.1x P/E with accelerating EBITDA and insider buying, the risk/reward strongly favors a long position. 4. RISKS: High net debt, competitive pressure from Booking/Expedia, or a slowdown in travel demand could invalidate the thesis. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - Subscribers up, EBITDA surging - Management buying shares - P/E 5.1x vs growth - Travel sector cyclicality - Drawdown overshadows fundamentals 1913 HK - LONG | confidence: 0.85 | sentiment: +0.80 Speaker: u/Away_Definition5829 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Prada trades at 9x EV/EBIT while luxury peers trade 16–25x; Miu Miu is growing 60%+ and the family controls 80% of shares. 2. THE BRIDGE: The valuation discount implies brand impairment, but Miu Miu’s explosive growth and strong free cash flow prove the brands are intact and gaining share. 3. THE VERDICT: A luxury conglomerate with pricing power, family stewardship, and a clear growth driver (Miu Miu) priced at a 50%+ discount to peers is a compelling long. 4. RISKS: Slowdown in Chinese luxury demand, FX headwinds, or brand dilution could narrow the arbitrage. Timeframe: long-term Key Points: - 9x EV/EB

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Another batch of company write-ups from Substack authors from within the last week.

Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: [https://gilescapital.substack.com](https://gilescapital.substack.com)

# Americas

**Rijnberk InvestInsights** on [**Shopify**](https://rijnberkinvestinsights.substack.com/p/shopify-a-deep-dive-into-the-toll) (🇨🇦 SHOP TSX - CAD$198bn)

Shopify commands 29% of US e-commerce at 63x P/E. The toll across Payments, Capital, and expanding B2B either compounds faster than the multiple compresses, or it does not.

**D Invests** on [**Tractor Supply**](https://dinvests.substack.com/p/tractor-supply-a-yield-worth-harvesting) (🇺🇸 TSCO US - US$23.5bn)

Rural lifestyle retailer at 14.7x P/E, dominant in markets where no national competitor exists. Management buybacks underway as insider penetration at 43% of US rural households suggests structural demand.

**Archive Invest** on [**Toast**](https://archiveinvest.substack.com/p/down-47-from-its-peak-this-business) (🇺🇸 TOST US - US$15.1bn)

Restaurant software covering 28% of US food service. Down 47% from its peak, yet with $1.8bn net cash, zero sell ratings among covering analysts, and EBITDA guidance improving.

**DeepValue Capital** on [**KBR**](https://deepvaluecapitalbykyler.substack.com/p/kbr-inc-kbr-notes) (🇺🇸 KBR US - US$3.5bn)

Government services and engineering at $3.5bn market cap. HomeSafe contract termination put the author on the sideline; the $2.2bn net debt is the reason the bar to re-enter stays high.

**Value Don't Lie** on [**MasterBrand**](https://www.valuedontlie.com/p/quick-value-316-masterbrand-inc-mbc) (🇺🇸 MBC US - US$1.8bn)

Largest US cabinet maker after the all-stock merger, at 30%+ market share. Trades at 7.7x trough EBITDA; a housing recovery and $90M in merger synergies are the thesis.

**Unfair Advantage** on [**Natural Grocers**](https://unfairadvantagecapital.substack.com/p/natural-grocers-by-vitamin-cottage) (🇺🇸 NGVC US - US$659M)

22 straight years of positive comp sales; Isely family owns 43%. In-house nutritionists advising supplements are the loyalty moat competitors cannot copy. P/E 13.5x with mid-teen growth targets.

# Europe, Middle East &amp; Africa

**Demystified Value** on [**Prada**](https://demystifiedvalue.substack.com/p/prada-spa-hk-1913-a-portfolio-of) (🇮🇹 1913 HK - US$12.5bn)

Luxury at 9x EV/EBIT while peers trade 16-25x. Miu Miu growing 60%+, 80% Prada family control. The discount only makes sense if the brand is impaired; the evidence says otherwise.

**310 Value** on [**eDreams ODIGEO**](https://310value.substack.com/p/edreams-disproving-the-bears-and) (🇪🇸 EDRE MC - €490M) TOP PICK

All the attention is on the -64% drawdown. The underlying business has 7.9M Prime subscribers, EBITDA up 74% over nine months, and management buying stock at P/E 5.1x.

# Asia-Pacific

**G.W. Field Notes** on [**ASX Limited**](https://sgwfieldnotes.substack.com/p/asx-limited-could-be-hidden-value) (🇦🇺 ASX ASX - US$6bn)

Australia's dominant exchange monopoly at 8x sales versus 11x historically, 4.2% yield. The CHESS failure is the reason for the discount; the moat across listing, trading, and clearing has not changed.

**KonichiValue** on [**Koei Tecmo Holdings**](https://www.konichivalue.com/p/koei-tecmo-holdings-tyo-3635-the) (🇯🇵 3635 TYO - US$3.4bn)

Dynasty Warriors maker at 11.5x P/E; the Erikawa family's investment portfolio outearned the gaming division last year. Clean balance sheet: ¥115bn net cash against a $3.4bn market cap. Market prices it as a mid-tier studio.

**Value Guinea** on [**Da Ren Tang and Beijing Tong Ren Tang National Medicine**](https://jingshu.substack.com/p/franchise-or-management-team) (🇨🇳 600329 SS - US$4.2bn / 🇨🇳 3613 HK - US$913M)

Da Ren Tang ($3.8bn, P/E 14.6, 43% net margin) and Tong Ren Tang ($913M) run the same TCM franchise. Equity reform and ROE 28% tell one story; SOE governance tells the other.

**stf research** on [**Sakai Chemical Industry**](https://stfbutnou.substack.com/p/sakai-chemical-the-upstream-play) (🇯🇵 4078 TYO - ¥89bn)

World's largest barium sulfate supplier to AI cooling systems, 30%+ market share, guidance raised. Stock up 90% since publication; the thesis is intact but the re-rating is already priced.

**Archetype Capital** on [**Sakai Chemical Industry and Nippon Chemical Industrial**](https://www.archetype-research.com/p/sakai-chemical-and-nippon-chemical) (🇯🇵 4078 TYO - ¥89bn / 🇯🇵 4092 TYO - ¥48bn)

Follow-on pairing the market leader with the #3 barium sulfate supplier. Both up 90-130% since initial coverage; whether the oligopoly structure holds is now the question.

**Value Zoomer** on [**Focus Point Holdings**](https://valuezoomer.substack.com/p/focusing-on-focus-point) (🇲🇾 FOCUSP KLSE - US$83M) TOP PICK

Malaysia's dominant optical chain, with a government ban on online contact lens sales eliminating the price competition that held back margins. 51% founder control, 9x P/E, 90 stores.

Идеи

u/Away_Definition5829 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

eDreams has 7.9M Prime subscribers, EBITDA up 74% over nine months, and management buying stock at P/E 5.1x. The -64% drawdown creates a deep value entry point; the underlying subscription business is growing rapidly while the market remains focused on past losses. At 5.1x P/E with accelerating EBITDA and insider buying, the risk/reward strongly favors a long position. High net debt, competitive pressure from Booking/Expedia, or a slowdown in travel demand could invalidate the thesis. 1913 HK - LONG | confidence: 0.85 | sentiment: +0.80 Speaker: u/Away_Definition5829 Thesis: Prada trades at 9x EV/EBIT while luxury peers trade 16–25x; Miu Miu is growing 60%+ and the family controls 80% of shares. The valuation discount implies brand impairment, but Miu Miu’s explosive growth and strong free cash flow prove the brands are intact and gaining share. A luxury conglomerate with pricing power, family stewardship, and a clear growth driver (Miu Miu) priced at a 50%+ discount to peers is a compelling long. Slowdown in Chinese luxury demand, FX headwinds, or brand dilution could narrow the arbitrage.

u/Away_Definition5829 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

Tractor Supply trades at 14.7x P/E, dominates rural retail with no national competitor, and management is actively buying back shares. 43% penetration of US rural households suggests structural demand growth; buybacks signal management conviction and enhance per-share value. A dominant retailer with pricing power, a loyal customer base, and a reasonable valuation – well-positioned for steady compounding. Recession reducing discretionary spending on rural lifestyle goods, or rising input costs pressuring margins.

u/Away_Definition5829 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

Toast is down 47% from its peak, holds $1.8bn net cash, has zero sell ratings, and EBITDA guidance is improving. The sell-off creates a margin of safety; the company covers 28% of US food service and is cash-rich, implying downside protection and room for upside as profitability improves. A market leader in restaurant tech trading well below highs, with net cash and improving fundamentals – a classic value recovery play. Slower restaurant spending, competitive threats from Square/Clover, or execution risk on path to sustained profitability. FOCUSP KLSE - LONG | confidence: 0.85 | sentiment: +0.80 Speaker: u/Away_Definition5829 Thesis: Focus Point is Malaysia’s dominant optical chain, 51% founder-owned, trading at 9x P/E with a government ban on online contact lens sales that eliminates price competition. The regulatory moat (no online sales) lifts margins, and 90 stores in a growing economy give expansion runway – yet the stock is priced at a single-digit multiple. A micro-cap with a government-protected competitive advantage, insider alignment, and cheap valuation – a high-conviction value pick. Small market cap and low liquidity, regulatory reversal, or weaker consumer spending in Malaysia.

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This Reddit post, published June 09, 2026, features u/Away_Definition5829 discussing EDR.MC, TSCO, TOST. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/Away_Definition5829 · Tickers: EDR.MC, TSCO, TOST