Where are we in the cycle?

=== SUMMARY === - The post warns that the semiconductor and memory (RAM) market is in a euphoric “HOT” phase, driven by FOMO and the dangerous narrative “this time is different,” which historically precedes a bust. - Author compares current dynamics to past commodity boom-bust cycles: excessive demand → price/earnings spike → new capacity → oversupply → crash. - Upcoming IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) are flagged as potential exit liquidity for insiders, signaling frothy sentiment and low expected returns for latecomers. - **Quality assessment:** This is a well-reasoned cyclical analysis based on Howard Marks’ framework and historical patterns, not rigorous data but a strong macro contrarian take – speculative but credible as a top-of-cycle warning. === SENTIMENT === BEARISH === TRADE IDEAS === SMH - SHORT | confidence: 0.70 | sentiment: -0.70 Speaker: u/ilnik2003 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Semiconductor and memory (RAM) have historically followed boom-bust cycles; current demand extrapolation and capacity builds mirror past peaks. 2. THE BRIDGE: Frothy IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) and FOMO-driven buying indicate the market is overextended, creating a short opportunity on a broad semiconductor ETF. 3. THE VERDICT: Short SMH to bet on a mean-reversion cycle as oversupply and slowing demand reverse the current euphoria. 4. RISKS: AI demand may be structurally persistent, delaying the bust; new capacity could take years to materialize; central bank liquidity could extend the boom. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - Author warns of classic “this time is different” trap - RAM commodity cycles always revert to oversupply - FOMO reduces required returns, inflating semis - Upcoming mega-IPOs signal peak exit liquidity - Short SMH as a proxy for sector overvaluation