u/ilnik2003

Reddit r/ValueInvesting
· tracked since May 2026
Calls
1
Win Rate
100.0%
return
+2.5%
Calls 1 1 Posts tracked · 0.0/day
Calls
7d 0
30d 0
90d 1
Best Calls
SMH Short +2.5%
Worst Calls
No live losers yet
Most Mentioned
SMH ×1
Recent Calls
SMH Short 2 months ago
Win Rate 100% Long 0 Short 1
Win Rate
7d 100%
30d 0%
90d
Average Return +2.5% Long Return - Short Return +2.5%
Average Return
7d +0.1%
30d -5.5%
90d
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Ticker
Side
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First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Short
May 30
$598.93
+2.5%
Semiconductor and memory (RAM) have historically followed boom-bust cycles; current demand extrapolation and capacity builds mirror past peaks. Frothy IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) and FOMO-driven buying indicate the market is overextended, creating a short opportunity on a broad semiconductor ETF. Short SMH to bet on a mean-reversion cycle as oversupply and slowing demand reverse the current euphoria. AI demand may be structurally persistent, delaying the bust; new capacity could take years to materialize; central bank liquidity could extend the boom.
Semiconductor and memory (RAM) have historically followed boom-bust cycles; current demand extrapolation and capacity builds mirror past peaks. Frothy IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) and FOMO-driven buying indicate the market is overextended, creating a short opportunity on a broad semiconductor ETF. Short SMH to bet on a mean-reversion cycle as oversupply and slowing demand reverse the current euphoria. AI demand may be structurally persistent, delaying the bust; new capacity could take years to materialize; central bank liquidity could extend the boom.
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u/ilnik2003 has 1 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 1 tickers since May 2026. Most covered: SMH.