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Hello everyone,
AI infrastructure—and semiconductors in particular—have been the hot topic in the market lately, and many stocks, such as Micron, AMD, and others, have skyrocketed.
Nvidia, however, has only participated in this rally to a very limited extent, and when I look at its current situation, I find myself wondering why
The latest figures were once again absolutely strong and exceeded extremely high expectations:
Revenue - $81.6 billion (vs. $78.97 billion expected)
Earnings per share - $1.87 (vs. $1.77 expected)
Data center revenue: $75 billion (92% year-over-year)
Gross margin: 74.9%
These are still excellent numbers, and the guidance looks good as well, with $91 billion (vs. $87 billion expected) in revenue and a projected gross margin of 75%.
I did a quick TTM comparison between AMD and Micron (two chip companies that are currently getting a lot of attention on Reddit):
| |Nvidia |Micron |AMD |
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
||
|Revenue|253,491B $|58,119B $|37,454B $|
|Revenue growth YoY/ QoQ|85%/ 20%|196%/ 75%|38%/ 0%|
|Gross Profit (Margin)|187,952B $ (74,1%)|33,963B $ (58,5%)|18,832B $ (50,3%)|
|Operating Income (Margin)|162,285B $ (64%)|28,133B $ (48,4%)|4,634B $ (12,4%)|
|Net Income (Margin)|159,613B $ (63%)|24,111B $ (41,5%)|5,009B$ (13,4%)|
|Free CashFlow (Margin)|119,076B $ (47%)|10,281B $ (18,6%)|8,574B $ (22,9%)|
|||||
So Nvidia is by far the largest company, yet it is still growing significantly faster than AMD. While Micron has recently shown stronger percentage growth, this is solely because the last quarter was exceptionally strong. When looking at several quarters quarter-over-quarter, both companies have generally shown similar growth rates in percentage terms, although Nvidia’s growth is greater in absolute terms!
The other figures show quite clearly that Nvidia remains the strongest of the three companies in operational terms! Nvidia has the highest margins on a significantly higher revenue base and clearly generates the most cash. Micron is indeed performing very strongly right now, but the last two quarters (especially the most recent one!) have been historically exceptional, which is why they first need to prove that these aren’t just cyclical effects (which I would assume is at least partly the case).
Of course, they have also risen quite a bit recently, but in my opinion, given these figures, that was a justified increase.
Looking at the current valuation, I would classify it as fair to slightly undervalued from a historical perspective:
The TTM P/E ratio currently stands at approximately 33, and the expected P/E ratio for fiscal year 27 is 23, and for the following fiscal year, it is as low as 17.
Of course, this still doesn't mean the stock is clearly undervalued, but I don't think we should assume we'll actually be able to buy such a stock at a large discount. And when compared to the rest of the industry, several other companies are currently trading at significantly higher valuations...
I therefore don’t think this is a classic value investment, but rather a GARP (Growth At a Reasonable Price) play once again, and you’re getting a company that’s performing very well, with continued extremely high growth and truly strong profitability (margins and FCF are exceptionally high), which is no longer completely “priced to perfection.”
I still see them as the clear leader ahead of AMD and others, and in my view, they are also the company with the broadest and deepest presence across the AI stack. With the new Vera Rubinstein chips and other products, they are no longer just a GPU manufacturer but are increasingly becoming an integrated AI infrastructure platform, which is why I believe they are very well positioned for the long term.
Of course, there are also some risks, such as high customer concentration, cyclicality, increasing competition, geopolitical factors, dependence on production, and so on.But for those who remain convinced of AI’s potential and want to invest, I believe there is currently an interesting opportunity here that is worth taking a closer look at.
What do you think?