6 months follow up to:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1pd8vex/moderna\_is\_in\_a\_generational\_yolo\_territory/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1pd8vex/moderna_is_in_a_generational_yolo_territory/)
My prediction has officially come true.
FDA concerns are gone. Vinay Prasad got pushed out. Marty Makary resigned. The flu vaccine is now being reviewed. The lawsuits are resolved, and the Phase 3 Intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157/V940) data is coming this summer, with an anticipated FDA application in the fall.
This resolves all known risks and the path ahead is clear.
Intismeran is initially going to be used for melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer. Between those two and the profit-sharing agreement with Merck, revenue should still top $10 billion combined with existing revenue that already beat estimates.
The price has also been stable around \~50 for the last few months, so very likely this goes from 50 to 100 on positive Intismeran data, and there is no reason for the data to be bad based on the 5-year results.
Doubling the price while there is still a massive short position, around \~20% on most days, means that even a small squeeze could momentarily push this into the 200-300 range.
All in.
Position: 30k shares @ 27.5