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It has been a while since I have posted a Due Dilligence post here so buckle in because this is going to be a long one. **No AI in this one either, this is all from the dome.**
Here is my [Original DD Post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Nok/comments/m0h2xn/a_comprehensive_guide_to_why_nokia_nok_is_one_of/) from 5 years ago and boy do I feel lucky that I have been able to build my position over time. A lot has changed since then, but some of it is still relevant.
So why has the share price increased and where is it going the rest of the year?
X users have been tracking recent $NOK options activity.
* [Dec 2026 $24 calls worth $4.15M](https://x.com/investmentguru_/status/2055274097521627500?s=46)
* [Jan 2027 $27 calls worth $1.5M](https://x.com/bullflowio/status/2054625402925056081?s=46)
* [Sep 2026 $19 calls worth $3.4M](https://x.com/fl0wg0d/status/2050232355839733985?s=46)
* [June 2026 $17 calls worth $700K](https://x.com/remzztrades/status/2050962596895830096?s=46)
Calls have always been a dangerous game with $NOK, but these definitely caught my attention. There have been numerous examples of "unusual" options activity in the last 5 years, but I cannot remember a time when it was this big and this bullish.
These buyers could all be wrong. But big money players tends to know what they are doing.
So why are these calls being purchased? **To frame this post, I wanted to address 5 rumors that have been circling Nokia recently and share my opinions.**
# Nvidia is Going to Buy More
If you are on this sub, you likely know that Nvidia bought $1B worth of Nokia shares in October of 2025. This is nearly a 3% stake in the company.
However, there are 2 things about this that have always struck me as odd.
First is that all of Nvidia's recent investments/partnerships (Marvell, Coherent, CoreWeave, Synopsys, Lumentum, and Nebius) have been $2B stakes. Why is Nokia's only $1b?
* There could be geopolitical reseasons (more on this later). Perhaps Nokia or the Finnish Government/Solidium wanted to limit outside control/ownership.
If you watch this [Interview of Jensen Huang and Justin Hotard](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egdwwfTyfyU), you will notice it starts mid-interview now as do all of the other clips I can now find it.
Originally in this interview, Jensen started by saying that "no body knows communications better than Nokia" and that **"he wishes the investment could have been $2B."**
* If anyone can find the video let me know, but I think it has been scrubbed from the internet. Only proof I have is this [Comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Nok/comments/1okwytz/comment/nmdycwx/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) of mine referencing it 7 months ago.
So maybe Nokia negotiated a staggered buy in. This would not be out of character for the organization. They have treated buybacks similarly in the last few years.
* Instead of buying back shares all at once as many organizations do, they have bough back small tranches of shares over time.
**Conclusion:** These calls could be coming from Nvidia insiders.
# The US Federal Goverment is Going to Buy a Stake
This may sound ridiculous at first, but this has been a rumor since early 2020.
[Attorney General William Barr Publically Stated This](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/barrs-call-for-u-s-control-of-5g-providers-quickly-rebuked) years ago and it was a big part of why I originally entered a position in Nokia. This is why the Rip and Replace program exisits.
* The current administration has been hot on foreign tech in US telecommunications since their first term in power and nothing has changed.
If you watch the Interview of Jensen Huang above, he is asked about the current administration and he reiterates that current US telecom is built on "foreign tech."
* That phrase is somewhat funny to me because even though the CEO is now an American, Nokia of course is a foreign company based out of Finalnd.
This is also the reason why most think the US gov will never buy a stake in Nokia. They will not buy a stake in a non-US company.
* I do tend to agree. It could be a way to better align with the EU whichFinland is now a part of, but this administration does not seem too keen on the EU.
It has also been rumored that Nokia may move their HQ to the US. Not sure that is likely, but [Nokia Pledging $4B in US Investment](https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-plans-to-expand-us-investment-by-4-billion-in-rd-and-manufacturing-for-ai-ready-network-connectivity/) and [Nokia Bell Labs Opening New HQ in New Jersey in 2028](https://spectrum.ieee.org/nokia-bell-labs-new-headquarters) could both be signs that this may eventually happen.
* Nokia owns what used to be Lucent Technologies which was a a massive spin-off of AT&T’s systems and Bell Labs in order to to sell hardware to telecom carriers.
This could also explain why Nvidia did not buy all $2B at once. **They are waiting for the US gov to buy their shares before investing the other $1B.**
* [Nvidia Purchased their $5B stake in Intel](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-and-intel-to-develop-ai-infrastructure-and-personal-computing-products) a month after [Trump bought $9B.](https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1748/intel-and-trump-administration-reach-historic-agreement-to)
The thesis behind this rumor is that Nvidia + Nokia create a true competitor to Huawei in the aggregate. This timing of these calls with Trump's trip to China intrigue me.
Trump has a strong relationship with Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb. [This Article calls Stubb Trump's closest European confidant](https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-alexander-stubb-nato-alliance-future/).
* [Nokia was also a hot topic during Stubb's 2025 October visit to the White House](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nokia_trump-and-finnish-president-alexander-stubb-activity-7382382999851466752-39kK?utm_source=li_share&utm_content=feedcontent&utm_medium=g_dt_web&utm_campaign=copy). That visit led to a deal in which the US agreed to buy 11 icebreaker ships from Finland.
**Conclusion:** These calls could be coming from US Government insiders.
# Nokia is Closing a Massive Deal with Google
If you missed [u/Mustathmir](https://www.reddit.com/user/Mustathmir/) post in r/NOK from a couple days ago, he referenced [Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Nok/comments/1tdvoj8/deutsche_bank_raises_nokias_target_price_69/) that Deutsche Bank raised their Price Target on Nokia and referenced the **"strong likelihood that this development has been driven by a significant deal with Google."**
* In their recent earnings call, Google did say that thei [Capital Expenditures will hit $190B in 2026 and Expects even more in 2027](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/alphabet-2026-capex-hits-190b-expects-even-more-spend-in-2027-223804412.html).
That money has to go somewhere, perhaps it is going to Nokia. Nokia has a solid history with the hyperscaler. They [First Partnered with Google Cloud in 2020](https://www.googlecloudpresscorner.com/2020-10-14-Nokia-and-Google-Cloud-Sign-Strategic-Collaboration-toTransform-Nokias-Digital-Infrastructure).
* They have expanded that partnership many times over the years including partnering on [AI-Powered Network Automation in 2025](https://www.sdxcentral.com/news/nokia-google-cloud-partnership-targets-ai-powered-network-automation/) and [APIs earlier this year](https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-expands-network-as-code-ecosystem-advances-api-based-agentic-ai-with-google-cloud-mwc26/).
**Conclusion:** These calls could be coming from Google insiders.
# Nokia is Closing a Massive Deal with Microsoft
This is a post about rumors, so this one is pretty light on details.
This post on X stating that [Microsoft is investing $100B in Infrastructure and Hosting Services](https://x.com/firstsquawk/status/2054604569590865973?s=46) has gained some traction.
* I have seen a few users post they believe Nokia could be a benefactor of this. Again, not a ton to back this one up. **Obviously Nokia is a big Infrastructure player.**
Nokia and Microsoft obviously have a long history with Microsoft buying Nokia's phone division back in 2014.
* A lot has changed since then, but Nokia is still working with the hyperscaler. [In 2021, they partnered on Cloud Solutions for Enterprises](https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-partners-with-microsoft-on-cloud-solutions-for-enterprise/).
**Conclusion:** These calls could be coming from Microsoft insiders.
# Leopold Aschenbrenner is Buying a Stake
And finally the rumor I care least about and think matters the least short & long term.
Aschenbrenner is a German AI researcher and investor. He was part of OpenAI's "Superalignment" team before he was fired in April 2024 over an alleged information leak.
He then founded Situational Awareness LP, a hedge fund investing in companies involved in the development of AI technology and turned $225M into $5.5B.
* His 13F was supposed to come out last week, but never did. Some think he either got permission to file late or confidentiality, but not sure either way.
* His holdings over the last year have performed well (Intel, Sandisk, Bloom Energy, Lumentum, CoreWeave, Coherent, Applied Digital).
**Conclusion:** These calls could be coming from Leopold Aschenbrenner.
All in all, exciting times currently and ahead with Nokia. Whether multiple or none of these rumors come to fruition, I am excited to see where the company goes in the coming years.
It has been quite the roller-coaster these last 5 years and I am sure there will be more highs and lows in the next 5. I look forward to experiencing them.
My general thesis from 5 years ago still remains accurate in my eyes - **Nokia is undervalued and "one of the most captivating investment opportunities in the market today."**