Upstart could 4x in a matter of weeks
If momentum gets going, UPST could be 100 within a week from the naked shorting crowdedness.
The intrinsic value of this company is around $50 yet trades at $28. Current and former ceo have bought over 10 million in shares altogether, despite their net worths being 100% upstart essentially already. The former ceo bought last week at 31, current ceo DOUBLED down and bought even more 1.5 million yesterday at $27.5 (bought 4m at 39.33 before). Thats 40x what Anthony noto is buying from SoFi in comparison.
Guidance is 35% CAGR for 3 years straight with 25% ebitda. The company will literally print money as an automated AI loan marketplace using other’s capital. They get all the reward with none of the risk from lending by routing loans to others balance sheets using AI. On top of that, they’ll be opening Upstart bank in a year to further reduce their operational costs. There’s only 1000 employees, mostly engineers, so they’ll be swimming in money. Forward agreements provide locked in capital and they’ve raised 4B and gotten renewed and raised partner capital agreements. Their guidance and bank operations makes this a $300 stock in a few years.
There’s only 100 million shares, and the stock appears to be a top 10 shorted stock with 75% utilization on IBKR and only 800k shares left to short. The stock appears to be one of the most naked shorted names in the entire market. In the past 2 years the stock has bounced up to $95 about 6 different times.
If momentum catches this stock, this could easily be gamma hedged over $100 in a few trading sessions.
TLDR: the stock has great fundamentals and projections, yet is getting crushed by short sellers atm. Stock could 10x in a few years from fundamentals alone, but shorts are beyond greedy.
Position: 4500 shares 10x 30 calls expiring next week.