MU is on fire with room to run

=== SUMMARY === - The post argues that Micron (MU) has more upside despite a massive rally, driven by HBM shortages, record revenue guidance, and S&P 100 inclusion. - The author’s thesis rests on hyperscaler demand exceeding supply, rising EPS revisions, and a still-reasonable forward multiple. - The analysis is well-researched DD with fundamental data and explicit positions, though it lacks discussion of cyclical risks or margin peaks. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === TICKER - MU - LONG | confidence: 0.85 | sentiment: +0.90 Speaker: u/willbabu Thesis: 1. THE FACT: MU’s HBM is sold out through 2026; customers are only receiving 50–66% of their requirements, and hyperscalers (MSFT, META, AMZN, AAPL) explicitly cite a prolonged memory crisis. 2. THE BRIDGE: This structural shortage drives pricing power and revenue upside. Management guided ~$33.5B next quarter (a $10B sequential jump), and 196% YoY revenue growth shows acceleration, not peaking. 3. THE VERDICT: The market is still underpricing the duration of the HBM cycle. With S&P 100 inclusion forcing index fund buying and analyst targets rising (DA Davidson $1,000), the path of least resistance is higher into June earnings. 4. RISKS: Semiconductor cyclicality is real; MU has already run 8x in the past year; any demand slowdown from hyperscalers or a shift in capex could reverse gains. Parabolic moves often correct sharply. Timeframe: short-term Key Points: - HBM4 sold out through 2026, pricing locked - Revenue guidance implies $10B sequential growth - Customers admit they can't get enough supply - Index inclusion forces passive buying pressure - Forward multiple still reasonable vs EPS growth === COMMENTS SUMMARY === Community sentiment is cautious: top comments highlight the 8x run over the past year as a reason to avoid chasing (u/Michikusa). Several users note they are already heavily positioned at lower costs (u/sewardpark2 at 4,500 shares, u/Illustrious-Coat3532 at $89 avg) and are not adding.