=== SUMMARY ===
- The post argues that DXYZ’s reported NAV ($434M) is significantly understated due to recent valuation jumps in its key holdings (Anthropic, SpaceX, Shield AI, Databricks, etc.), making the true NAV approximately $714M or more.
- The author is heavily long DXYZ ($28k + $15k in retirement) and believes the market cap (~$650M) still leaves upside as the fund trades below its real asset value.
- Quality assessment: Well-researched DD using SEC filings, secondary market valuations, and funding round data; however, private market valuations are inherently uncertain and not directly realizable.
=== SENTIMENT ===
BULLISH
=== TRADE IDEAS ===
DXYZ - LONG | confidence: 0.85 | sentiment: +0.80
Speaker: u/blabberboy
Thesis:
1. THE FACT: DXYZ’s last reported NAV ($434M) is based on end-2025 valuations; since then, Anthropic ($350B → ~$1T), SpaceX ($800B → $1.75T at IPO), Shield AI ($5B → $12B), and others have soared, adding ~$280M+ to NAV.
2. THE BRIDGE: The current $650M market cap is below the adjusted $714M+ NAV, creating a potential discount-to-NAV arbitrage. As the fund revalues holdings, the discount should compress.
3. THE VERDICT: Buy DXYZ as a backdoor entry into high-growth private AI and space tech at a discount to intrinsic value.
4. RISKS: Private valuations may be overstated; the fund may trade at persistent discount; liquidity is thin; NAV updates are lagging.
Timeframe: medium-term (6-12 months)
Key Points:
- NAV likely underpriced by 10-20% vs market cap.
- Key catalyst: next NAV update or IPO event.
- Anthropic holdings alone add ~$200M to NAV.
- Discount to NAV may persist due to structure.
- Competitor VCX trades at higher premium, supporting thesis.
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Anybody excited about this fund? Position: Long $28k (also long $15k in 2nd retirement account).
Their last reported NAV was $434M which is well below their current market cap: \~$650M, but their reported NAV is misleadingly based on old info from end of 2025!
They invested $100M out of their \~$430M fund in Anthropic at the $350B valuation on Jan 26, 2026.
[https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1843974/000157587226000064/dxyz096\_424b3.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1843974/000157587226000064/dxyz096_424b3.htm)
If we suppose Anthropic is worth $1T today, that adds an additional \~$200M worth of pure Anthropic ownership to DXYZ's NAV, so a big % of DXYZ = Anthropic shares.
[https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-trillion-dollar-valuation-on-secondary-markets-2026](https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-trillion-dollar-valuation-on-secondary-markets-2026)
Furthermore, 16% of their reported NAV was in SpaceX, which at the time they reported means they owned $70M worth of SpaceX. Let's assume they calculated this their reporting at SpaceX's $800B late 2025 valuation (it's possible they calculated this at a significantly lower SpaceX valuation). If SpaceX IPOs at the planned 1.75T valuation, that adds an additional \~$80M to DXYZ's actual NAV.
Given this, the DXYZ NAV is now at least $714M (of which a large chunk = Anthropic), and this is not even considering the fact that many of their other holdings have had big valuation increases since DXYZ reported NAV at the end of 2025.
Shield AI (4% of DXYZ at end of 2025): valuation then was 5B, now 12B
[https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/defense-technology-startup-shield-ai-valued-127-billion-latest-funding-round-2026-03-26/?utm\_source=chatgpt.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/defense-technology-startup-shield-ai-valued-127-billion-latest-funding-round-2026-03-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
Databricks (4% of DXYZ at end of 2025): valuation then was 134B, now 150B (good luck buying on secondary market at that valuation)
[https://notice.co/c/databricks](https://notice.co/c/databricks)
OpenEvidence (3.5% of DXYZ at end of 2025): valuation then was 6B, now 12B
[https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/medical-ai-startup-openevidence-doubles-valuation-12-billion-latest-round-2026-01-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/medical-ai-startup-openevidence-doubles-valuation-12-billion-latest-round-2026-01-21/)
OpenAI (2% of DXYZ at end of 2025): valuation then was 750B, now over 850B
[https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/](https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/)
I don't understand how investors could prefer VCX which is trading at many times NAV over DXYZ...
https://preview.redd.it/77rkzn2md9xg1.png?width=1314&format=png&auto=webp&s=378df2a804929b3c49d3eedc7688cdada3577261
DXYZ’s last reported NAV ($434M) is based on end-2025 valuations; since then, Anthropic ($350B → ~$1T), SpaceX ($800B → $1.75T at IPO), Shield AI ($5B → $12B), and others have soared, adding ~$280M+ to NAV. The current $650M market cap is below the adjusted $714M+ NAV, creating a potential discount-to-NAV arbitrage. As the fund revalues holdings, the discount should compress. Buy DXYZ as a backdoor entry into high-growth private AI and space tech at a discount to intrinsic value. Private valuations may be overstated; the fund may trade at persistent discount; liquidity is thin; NAV updates are lagging.