A contrarian take.

just here for discussion. I imagine the vast majority will disagree with me but want to present a contrarian take and discuss. I enjoy having my mind changed by the opinion of others. ultimately nobody can predict the future. I'm not pretending to have absolute certainty. I simply think that de-escalation from here is the most likely outcome and that markets would obviously recover if this outcome materializes. why: Trump's perspective: we are approaching a point of no return. supply chains experts are basically all saying that if the strait does not open in April, the economic damage will be irreversible. trump obviously wants to win midterms. while to many of us that is already a long shot... high gas prices and low 401ks are a surefire way to guarantee losses and a lame duck presidency going forward. say what you will about trump, but I think if he is good at anything, it is having his finger on the pulse of the average voter. he must know that if this war drags on, even for 1-2 more months, the damage will be irreparable. while the US can inflict much more pain on Iran, this is a price that I believe trump is extremely hesitant to pay. irans perspective: this is where I feel that I diverge from most. I don't think Iran wants to drag this on indefinitely. Irans leverage is economic damage, and this ties into the above. if Iran unilaterally drags the war on for months, they put trump into a corner. while this would be extremely painful for trump, it would also reduce irans negotiating leverage. if trump feels the economic damage is done and the midterms are a wash, he is no longer disuaded from a maximum damage military campaign. in this world both trump and iran lose. the economy is pushed into recession globally. trump is sunk politically. and Iranian infrastructure and global political legitimacy are completely annihilated. nobody wins and there is no room for negotiation. given the above, from irans perspective they currently have the most leverage with which to negotiate. both sides do in fact. both sides are hanging Armageddon over each other's head, and both sides realize that once that bridge is crossed there will be no turning back and no path to deescalation. people are talking about a black Monday and boots on the ground over the weekend. maybe an occupation of kharg island. in my opinion this is all just posturing by trump. the deployments in and of themselves are intended to provide negotiating leverage, and the hope is to never have to use them. I think negotiations will continue next week after which point we will either have a settlement, or we will cross the bridge to escalation and consequently a market meltdown. but rationally, like I said, both sides are incentivized to find an off ramp before that bridge is crossed. therefore I think this is the most likely outcome and that we probably see a resolution by mid April and a corresponding recovery in markets.