July 2026 FOMC Debrief
Спикеры
Joseph Wang
— Автор, Central Banking 101 / бывший старший трейдер, Федеральная резервная система
The July 2026 FOMC held rates flat but delivered a hawkish presser with three dissenting voters. Fed Chair Kevin unsettled markets by suggesting his inflation framework relies on a secret target beyond PCE, triggering a sharp sell-off in long-dated Treasuries. Joseph Wang assesses the meeting as damaging for Fed credibility, raising risk for long bond holders and likely spilling over to broader risk assets.
- No rate hike in July despite a 30% market probability and some hawkish expectations.
- Three FOMC voters dissented in favor of hiking rates.
- Fed Chair Kevin emphasized price stability but admitted using a broader, undisclosed inflation measure beyond PCE.
- The 30-year Treasury yield surged during the press conference on credibility concerns.
- Front-end and belly rates declined as the immediate hike risk faded.
- The Fed views inflation pressure from tariffs, the AI buildout, and energy prices.
- Kevin's overall performance was criticized as poor and potentially hurting market confidence.
Идеи
Secret inflation target hurts long bonds
Fed Chair Kevin indicated his inflation target is not truly measured by PCE and is essentially a secret, materially increasing uncertainty and risk for holders of long-term Treasuries. This caused 30-year bond yields to spike during the press conference.
Joseph Wang
Автор, Central Banking 101 / бывший старший трейдер, Федеральная резервная система
10:56
Fed uncertainty hits risk assets
The poor press conference and the Fed chair's secret inflation target will negatively impact broader risk assets, as the increased uncertainty and bond market stress spill over into equities and other risk markets.
Далее
This Joseph Wang video, published July 29, 2026, features Joseph Wang discussing 30-Year US Treasury Bond, SPY. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Joseph Wang · Tickers: 30-Year US Treasury Bond, SPY