Meb Faber’s Mid-Year Market Review
Спикеры
Meb Faber
— Соучредитель и директор по инвестициям (CIO), Cambria Investment Management
Cambria CIO Meb Faber reviews mid-year markets, arguing US large-cap stocks are historically overvalued and poised for poor returns. He recommends heavy rotation into undervalued foreign and emerging markets, US small-cap value, equal-weight equities, and real assets. He stresses that trend following should play a large portfolio role and that fixed-income investors should avoid duration and credit risk, sticking to T-bills.
- U.S. market CAPE ratio at 42, historically signals below-average decade-ahead returns.
- Recommends tilting away from U.S. large-cap market weight toward value, small cap, and equal-weight.
- Foreign developed and emerging market equities are cheap, under-owned, and beginning to attract FOMO inflows.
- Shareholder yield strategy (buybacks, dividends, debt reduction) with momentum screens helps avoid value traps.
- Trend following should constitute up to 50% of portfolios as a crucial diversifier.
- Fixed-income risk not worth taking; stick to T-bills until credit spreads widen.
- Global REITs have surprisingly strong performance and remain an under-owned real asset class.
- Gold serves a strategic role in improving long-term risk-adjusted portfolio returns.
Идеи
Avoid US large-cap, extremely overvalued.
US large-cap stocks are extremely overvalued, with a CAPE ratio of 42 and dividend yield of 1%. Historically, no market ending a year at a CAPE of 40 has delivered above-average returns over the next decade. He expects poor returns (low single digits) over the next 5-7 years, making US large-cap market-cap-weight stocks unattractive.
Foreign developed stocks cheap, poised to rise.
Foreign developed equities are cheap, trading at low-teen valuations relative to the expensive US market. They are under-owned, performance is strong and accelerating, and FOMO is starting to build. Investors should allocate significantly to this asset class.
Emerging markets undervalued, major upside ahead.
Emerging market equities are deeply undervalued, massively under-owned by US investors despite representing over half of world GDP, and have been performing exceptionally. A FOMO-driven reallocation could push them much higher.
Rotate into US small-cap value.
US small-cap value stocks are having an excellent year as value rotates within the US, and breaking the market-cap tilt by moving down in size and toward value offers attractive opportunities with low valuations (P/E of 10).
Global REITs surging, under-owned real asset.
Global REITs are having a surprisingly phenomenal year, up 12% with a value tilt, and represent an under-owned real asset class that investors should include in portfolios.
Use shareholder yield strategy to avoid value traps.
A quantitative shareholder yield strategy—buying companies with high combined buybacks, dividends, and debt reduction, and sorting by momentum to avoid value traps—historically adds about 1% per year and has delivered exceptional results across US, foreign developed, and emerging markets.
Allocate heavily to trend following strategies.
Trend following and momentum strategies are an essential diversifier that should constitute up to 50% of a portfolio. They provide protection during downturns (e.g., 2022) by shorting bonds and other assets when equities fall, and are severely under-allocated by investors.
Avoid bonds, own T-bills for yield.
The entire fixed-income curve offers inadequate compensation for duration and credit risk relative to risk-free T-bills. Credit spreads are in the top decile historically and are vulnerable to blowing out. Investors should avoid aggregate bonds, corporates, and high yield, and own T-bills instead.
Avoid bonds, own T-bills for yield.
The entire fixed-income curve offers inadequate compensation for duration and credit risk relative to risk-free T-bills. Credit spreads are in the top decile historically and are vulnerable to blowing out. Investors should avoid aggregate bonds, corporates, and high yield, and own T-bills instead.
Use VAMO for hedged value exposure.
VAMO is an ETF that buys US value stocks and dynamically hedges market exposure (0-100%) based on valuation and trend, making it ideal for investors nervous about an expensive S&P 500 while still participating in upside.
Equal-weight will stomp cap-weight.
Equal-weighted US equities will significantly outperform cap-weighted indices over the next decade because cap-weighting's Achilles heel is valuation, and current extreme valuations make an equal-weight approach superior.
Далее
This Meb Faber Show video, published July 20, 2026, features Meb Faber discussing SPY, Foreign developed equities, EEM, US small-cap value equities, BLG, EYLD, SYLD, FYLD, GMO, AGG, LQD, HYG, BIL, VAMO, Equal-weight US equities, GLD. 12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Meb Faber · Tickers: SPY, Foreign developed equities, EEM, US small-cap value equities, BLG, EYLD, SYLD, FYLD, GMO, AGG, LQD, HYG, BIL, VAMO, Equal-weight US equities, GLD