Real Yield 7/2/2026

The episode examines a slowing U.S. labor market, Fed Chair Warsh's stance on less forward guidance, and macro views favoring a stronger dollar. It covers easing redemption pressures at Blue Owl and risks in buy-now-pay-later securitization. Credit strategists discuss record investment-grade issuance, caution on tight spreads, a sell signal for high-yield energy, and a positive outlook for World Cup infrastructure municipal bonds. - U.S. jobs report shows a sharp hiring slowdown, but the Fed remains focused on full employment and sticky inflation. - Kelsey Berro expects continued slight U.S. dollar strength due to the lack of alternatives and locked-in reserve currency status. - Blue Owl's private credit redemption requests decline, with healthy liquidity and repeat requesters, suggesting panic may be subsiding. - Record first-half IG issuance driven by data-center capex, refinancing, and M&A is well absorbed by institutional demand from pension and insurance accounts. - Matt Brill warns credit spreads are tight and risks are skewed to the downside, leading his team to lighten up on credit. - Winnie Cisar recommends locking in gains in high-yield energy as spreads compress and oil prices retreat. - Margot Kleinman highlights World Cup host cities' use of muni bonds for infrastructure as fiscally responsible and attractive for investors. - Fed Chair Warsh aims to reduce forward guidance, putting the dot plot at risk of elimination.