Bloomberg Surveillance 5/6/2026
Спикеры
Max Kettner
— Главный стратег по мультиактивным портфелям, HSBC
Chris Harvey
— CIBC
Barbara Reinhard
— Chief Investment Officer, Voya Investment Management
The video covers a broad risk-on move driven by reports of a potential US-Iran peace deal, which sends oil plunging and equities rallying. Tech earnings from AMD and others fuel the rally, while experts debate whether the improvement is sustainable and which sectors will benefit. Trade tensions with the EU and China, Fed policy expectations, and the physical oil market tightness are also discussed.
- US and Iran reportedly close to a one-page memorandum to end the war, re-opening the Strait of Hormuz.
- Crude oil prices drop more than 10% on the diplomatic optimism, lifting equities and bonds.
- AMD reports blowout earnings, surging ~20% in premarket, highlighting strong AI demand for CPUs.
- HSBC's Max Kettner favors cyclical plays (XRT, home builders, regional banks) and emerging Asia equities on a potential peace deal.
- CIBC's Chris Harvey advises avoiding small caps, saying macro support is still lacking.
- Disney and Ubers beat earnings, showing consumer resilience despite higher gas prices.
- The Treasury keeps coupon issuance steady, funding extra needs via T-bills.
- USTR Greer warns the EU to comply with trade deal terms or face 25% auto tariffs.
Идеи
Cyclicals benefit from Middle East peace
If the Middle East conflict is resolved, cyclical names will benefit from lower front-end yields, improved consumer confidence, and easing of supply chain pressures. Specific plays include retail (XRT), home builders, and regional banks.
Regional banks spreads improving, buy
Regional banks will benefit from tightening credit spreads and reduced private credit fears, especially if a peace deal materializes. Spreads have already come down significantly.
Emerging Asia equities have both tailwinds
Emerging Asia equities offer a dual tailwind: positive geopolitical news from the Middle East and strong earnings momentum in tech/AI/semiconductors. Positioning is still below neutral, leaving room for further upside.
Small caps need rate cuts, avoid
Small caps are not attractive because they require lower interest rates and a stronger economy to perform. Earnings season shows only AI/adjacent names are strong; general cyclicals are uncertain. The top names in the Russell drive most returns, and macro support is lacking.
Далее
This Bloomberg Markets video, published May 06, 2026, features Max Kettner, Chris Harvey discussing XRT, ITB, KRE, EEMA, IWM. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Max Kettner, Chris Harvey · Tickers: XRT, ITB, KRE, EEMA, IWM