Are The AI Labs Getting Nationalized?
Спикеры
Ari Paul
— Founder, BlockTower Capital
Avi Felman
— Директор, GoldenTree Asset Management
Ari Paul, founder of BlockTower Capital, joins Avi Felman to reflect on crypto's diminishing edge, the migration of talent to AI, and the risks and opportunities within AI investing. He warns that AI model creators face overlooked nationalization and IP risks, that data center overbuild echoes the fiber bubble, and that value may flow to moated companies like Visa. The conversation also covers AI's productivity revolution, Ari's personal biohacking experiments, and the macro cycle of peak political chaos.
- Crypto's early inefficiencies are gone; professional market makers dominate.
- Top talent has left crypto for AI, weakening the industry's future.
- AI model creators (Meta, Google) may be overvalued due to IP theft, espionage, and potential nationalization.
- Data center fabrication is overbuilding, risking a bust akin to the fiber bubble.
- Companies with locked-in distribution and high switching costs (e.g., Visa) can leverage AI to cut costs and preserve margins.
- AI agents enable one person to do the work of a team, disrupting traditional employment.
- Ari Paul experiments with TMS and peptides for health optimization, highlighting the blend of AI and biology.
- Societal trust is declining, and the Fourth Turning's crisis cycle suggests near-term chaos before a reset.
Идеи
Nationalization risk threatens AI model creators
AI model creators like Meta and Google face overlooked risks: state-sponsored IP theft makes their technology available to rivals, possible nationalization would restrict their operations and talent, and if a superhuman trading model emerges, shareholders won't benefit because the engineers will use it privately. These factors are not being priced in, making current valuations potentially fragile.
Data center overbuild mirrors fiber bubble
The massive surge in data center construction is reminiscent of the 1990s fiber overbuild. Trillions are being spent on compute, but other bottlenecks (power, rare earths, optics) will emerge and new AI techniques are dramatically cutting hardware needs. This may lead to overcapacity and a bust, hurting companies that rode the buildout like Caterpillar.
Visa moat prevents AI disruption, benefits
Companies with locked-in distribution, high switching costs, and strong brands like Visa are difficult for AI to disrupt. Instead, they can use AI to dramatically reduce their own costs while maintaining revenue, making them attractive long holdings. This follows a Warren Buffett-style value approach adapted to the AI era.
AI accelerates biotech drug discovery
Recent advances in biotech, accelerated by AI-driven drug discovery, are producing breakthroughs like Eli Lilly's new cholesterol treatment. The pace of innovation is so rapid that the FDA is struggling to keep up, creating a bullish environment for biotech companies.
Далее
This 1000x Podcast video, published July 06, 2026, features Ari Paul, Avi Felman discussing GOOGL, META, CAT, V, LLY. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Ari Paul, Avi Felman · Tickers: GOOGL, META, CAT, V, LLY