Japan On Possible Yen Intervention Watch
Спикеры
Anya Andrianova
— Bloomberg Reporter
Emily Graffeo
— Ведущий, Bloomberg
Anya Andrianova discusses Japan's yen intervention and BOJ policy with Emily Graffeo. She argues the intervention only bought time and that a BOJ September rate hike with hawkish guidance would support the yen, but would pressure JGBs and could lift global bond yields. She also explains that US involvement in the intervention was driven by concern that Japanese selling of Treasuries would push US yields higher.
- Japanese yen remains near 160 versus the dollar despite intervention.
- Government is said to support a near-term BOJ rate hike.
- A BOJ rate hike is seen as needed to support the yen but risks JGBs.
- Higher JGB yields could spill over to global bond yields.
- The US intervened partly to prevent Japan from selling Treasuries.
- Scott Bessent is worried about US Treasury yields.
- Intervention and verbal support only buy time; next step is with the BOJ.
- BOJ faces a trade-off between the yen and its bond market.
Идеи
BOJ September hike would support yen.
Intervention supported the yen but only bought time; the real support would come from a BOJ rate hike in September and a hawkish signal for further hikes, which would strengthen the currency.
BOJ rate hikes pressure JGB prices lower.
The government is supportive of a near-term BOJ rate hike; if the BOJ raises in September and signals more hikes, it would put downward pressure on Japanese government bonds and push JGB yields higher, forcing a delicate choice between supporting the yen and hurting the bond market.
Higher JGB yields push global yields up.
The U.S. is worried about Treasury yields and intervened partly to prevent Japan, the biggest Treasury holder, from selling more U.S. Treasuries; if Japan sold, it would push U.S. yields higher, and verbal intervention or intervention only helps for some time, leaving Treasury yields vulnerable.
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