Bloomberg Surveillance 8/7/2026
Спикеры
Chris Verrone
— Руководитель отдела макроэкономических исследований, Piper Sandler
Vishy Tirupattur
— Главный стратег по фиксированному доходу, Morgan Stanley
Priya Misra
— Портфельный менеджер, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Stephanie Roth
— Chief Economist, Wolfe Research
Greg Peters
— PGIM Fixed Income
Norman Roule
— Former Senior U.S. Intelligence Official, CSIS
Gene Seroka
— Исполнительный директор, Порт Лос-Анджелеса
The July payrolls report shocked with a -23,000 print (vs. +80,000 expected), while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Markets interpreted the data as reducing the probability of a September Fed rate hike, sparking a bond rally and equity gains. The program also covered massive AI-related debt supply, geopolitical tensions disrupting Hormuz shipping, and cross-asset investment views from Wall Street strategists.
- July nonfarm payrolls came in at -23K, far below the 80K consensus, but the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% on a shrinking labor force.
- Treasury yields fell sharply at the front end, with the two-year note leading the rally as rate hike odds receded.
- Equities rallied, with the S&P 500 up about 0.5% and small caps outperforming, viewing the data as reducing immediate Fed tightening risks.
- Chris Verrone (Baird) highlighted improving market internals, called Japanese bank stocks attractive on reflation, and saw broad equity upside.
- Vishy Tirupattur (Morgan Stanley) recommended shorting Oracle bonds and preferred AI high-yield over AI investment-grade debt.
- Priya Misra (JPMAM) favored owning investment-grade corporate bonds for the spread cushion over Treasuries.
- Stephanie Roth (Wolfe Research) expects further S&P 500 gains driven by broadening earnings into cyclicals like financials, industrials, and health care.
- Greg Peters (PGIM) would buy 30-year Treasuries over 30-year Alphabet debt, citing enormous hyperscaler supply and relative value.
Идеи
S&P 500 rally broadening with internals.
The equity market internals are improving, with 75% of S&P 500 above the 200-day moving average, the market has been resilient to headwinds, and the broadening participation signals a strong, rotational rally with further upside.
Japanese banks benefit from reflation.
Despite fears about higher Japanese government bond yields causing systemic issues, Japanese bank stocks are performing well, reflecting a massive departure and change in Japan's economy (a reflationary boom), and the systemic fears are overblown.
Prefer AI high-yield over investment-grade.
Within AI-related credit, high-yield bonds offer better prospects due to potential upgrades and favorable technicals, while investment-grade AI bonds face massive supply and spread widening. They prefer high-yield portions over high-grade.
Prefer AI high-yield over investment-grade.
Within AI-related credit, high-yield bonds offer better prospects due to potential upgrades and favorable technicals, while investment-grade AI bonds face massive supply and spread widening. They prefer high-yield portions over high-grade.
Oracle credit deteriorating, short it.
Oracle has been downgraded to BBB- and is trading like junk. Its ability to issue debt is very different from high-quality hyperscalers, and they have been short Oracle debt for some time due to its challenging situation.
Buy corporate bonds for yield cushion.
Given the heavy supply of long-duration debt and rate uncertainty, investment-grade corporate bonds offer an attractive cushion over Treasuries, with an additional ~200 basis points of spread that can absorb rising rates.
Diversify into cyclicals for earnings broadening.
Earnings growth is broadening beyond mega-cap tech, with strong performance in financials, industrials, and health care. Investors need diversification into these cyclical areas to capture the next leg higher.
Prefer 30-year Treasury over Alphabet debt.
With the deluge of hyperscaler issuance just starting and long-end Treasury yields already under pressure, the 30-year Treasury offers better relative value than 30-year Alphabet debt, which faces crowding-out effects.
Prefer 30-year Treasury over Alphabet debt.
With the deluge of hyperscaler issuance just starting and long-end Treasury yields already under pressure, the 30-year Treasury offers better relative value than 30-year Alphabet debt, which faces crowding-out effects.
Далее
This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 07, 2026, features Chris Verrone, Vishy Tirupattur, Priya Misra, Stephanie Roth, Greg Peters discussing SPY, Japanese bank stocks, AI High Yield bonds, AI Investment Grade bonds, ORCL, LQD, XLV, XLF, XLI, TLT, GOOGL. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Chris Verrone, Vishy Tirupattur, Priya Misra, Stephanie Roth, Greg Peters · Tickers: SPY, Japanese bank stocks, AI High Yield bonds, AI Investment Grade bonds, ORCL, LQD, XLV, XLF, XLI, TLT, GOOGL