Bloomberg's Stuart Livingstone-Wallace discusses the potential for Iran talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit chokepoint. Progress on a mechanism is noted, but shipping remains a trickle and global oil inventories are significantly depleted. The market has reacted with lower oil prices on talk of a deal, though a near-term resolution is unlikely. OPEC's output increase is theoretical until the strait reopens.
- President Trump announced new Iran talks starting Monday and suggested a Strait of Hormuz deal may be close.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains mostly blocked, with only a trickle of tankers getting through.
- Global oil inventories are 400–600 million barrels lower than at the end of February.
- OPEC's recent output increase is theoretical because spare capacity holders cannot export without the strait open.
- A Hormuz resolution could unlock rapid supply normalization and pressure oil prices, but a fix is not expected this week.
- Oil prices slumped on the diplomatic headlines.