US US TIPS Загрузка... : Бычьи и медвежьи мнения аналитиков

The explosive growth of US government debt (from $5 trillion in 2000 to $40 trillion today) combined with unfavorable demographics will cause sustained real losses for long-duration sovereign bondholders. Since 2009, fixed income investors have lost substantial wealth as interest rates were kept artificially low and then adjusted upward. Even inflation-linked bonds like TIPS and NTN-B failed to preserve purchasing power because real yields rose. Given that governments cannot easily allow a deep recession without risking a debt crisis, they are trapped, and the trend of real wealth destruction in sovereign bonds is set to continue. Therefore, investors should avoid or drastically reduce exposure to US 10-year Treasuries, TIPS, and Brazilian NTN-B bonds to protect their portfolios.

US real rates are approaching attractive levels as inflation expectations decline, but current positioning is still cautious; worth monitoring for entry.