^K ^KS11 Загрузка... : Бычьи и медвежьи мнения аналитиков

The KOSPI is currently in a technical rebound following the severe July drop, with a 50% Fibonacci retracement pointing to the 2,700 level. To break higher towards 2,800, US Treasury yields must decline. If yields remain elevated, the market will stay trapped in a box range, making it crucial to monitor the US Clarity Act in September, which could lower yields.

The market has bottomed. The VKOSPI volatility index has dropped from 90 to 50, which will trigger mechanical buying from foreign asset allocation and risk parity funds that were forced to sell during the high-volatility spike. The index should naturally rebound to the 2700-2750 level.

The KOSPI has fallen 40% from its peak, but earnings tripled year-over-year, making fair value around 7,500. The decline is a massive overreaction. History shows markets always recover, and smart money will return. At current levels a full bet (full allocation) is correct, expecting the index to recover to 6,500–7,000 by mid-August.

The KOSPI has declined 28% from its June peak and 21% in July alone, with extreme bearish sentiment and forced deleveraging (credit balances shrinking, ETF outflows). These oversold conditions, combined with the clearing of supply-demand overhangs and the return of funds from the CXMT IPO subscription, set the stage for a bottom confirmation. If the index holds above its recent low and moves back above 7,000 this week, the probability of a sustained recovery increases significantly. The initial bounce is likely to be strong, followed by consolidation.

The KOSPI is transitioning from an unhealthy extreme concentration in two mega-cap semiconductor stocks to a broader, more stable rally. As other sectors and undervalued companies start to participate in the uptrend, the index will advance at a more gradual pace with lower volatility. This broadening creates a healthier market environment that benefits overall Korean equities and reduces the risk of a narrow-led collapse.

KOSPI index has strong support at 7,200, a level that fundamental valuation (PBR ~0.6x) and absence of systemic crisis make unlikely to sustain a breakdown; leveraged ETF forced selling may overshoot but technical support holds. Upside is capped near 8,700-8,800 unless big tech provides positive catalysts; the national pension fund is expected to buy below 8,000, providing further support. A range-bound trading opportunity: buy near 7,200-7,300, target 8,700-8,800.

With the major macro headwind (Iran/Trump tensions, oil spike) resolved and the AI-driven profit growth of mega-cap tech unimpaired, KOSPI can break to new all-time highs and reach the 10,000 level, a ~15% upside that is entirely plausible given still-low valuations.

KOSPI index's trend has shifted higher, with the box range floor likely rising from 7,200 to around 7,500-8,000, signaling a bullish phase; however, near-term volatility from FOMC and weekend uncertainties suggests buying on dips rather than chasing intraday spikes.

The KOSPI (South Korean stock market) is fundamentally solid despite heavy foreign selling. Nomura and Goldman Sachs maintain positive views, and the selling is largely mechanical due to overweight positions rather than fundamental deterioration. The market's fundamentals remain strong, supported by key companies like Samsung and SK Hynix.

If Samsung and Hynix re-rate to 10x+ P/E, the KOSPI index can reach 11,200, offering a broad market rally.

If the US 10-year Treasury yield reaches 5%, the KOSPI will likely break below 7,000, as rising yields pressure risk assets and increase capital outflow risks for Korea. This is a conditional warning to monitor yield levels closely.

The KOSPI can reach 8,500 based on 10x forward P/E on current aggregate earnings (or ~8,400 using PBR of 2.2x, comparable to Taiwan's 3.4x PBR adjusted for ROE differences). If earnings continue to rise, the index can go beyond 8,500. This is supported by strong upside from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix and by a structural AI capex cycle that offsets macro headwinds.

KOSPI is undervalued at 8.2x P/E (10-year average 9.3x). With Samsung and Hynix earnings surging and potential re-rating, the index can reach 7,500 by mid-year (near-term) and 8,300-10,000 if re-rating occurs. The speaker initially called 7,500 in February when KOSPI was around 5,000, and now expects it much sooner.