Yoon Jae-sung

US solar demand is surging as big tech data centers return from UAE to the US due to war, but US power generation capacity is limited. Solar+ESS+gas generator combo is seeing orders, and supply gluts are easing. Hanwha Solutions (one solution) and OCI Holdings, with US module plants, benefit from rising module prices (Hanwha Solutions saw 14% QoQ price rise) and potential space solar demand (OCI could supply SpaceX).

US solar demand is surging as big tech data centers return from UAE to the US due to war, but US power generation capacity is limited. Solar+ESS+gas generator combo is seeing orders, and supply gluts are easing. Hanwha Solutions (one solution) and OCI Holdings, with US module plants, benefit from rising module prices (Hanwha Solutions saw 14% QoQ price rise) and potential space solar demand (OCI could supply SpaceX).

The structural shift in global oil markets—Middle East refinery/chemical capacity damaged (4-5% offline for 1-1.5 years), US shale production peaking (new wells need $60+ breakeven vs $40 previously), and UAE leaving OPEC weakening Middle East pricing power—means Asian refiners and chemical companies will gain competitiveness and see higher valuations. The current oil price drop on ceasefire is a buying opportunity, especially during the June-July dip when high raw material costs hit earnings.

The structural shift in global oil markets—Middle East refinery/chemical capacity damaged (4-5% offline for 1-1.5 years), US shale production peaking (new wells need $60+ breakeven vs $40 previously), and UAE leaving OPEC weakening Middle East pricing power—means Asian refiners and chemical companies will gain competitiveness and see higher valuations. The current oil price drop on ceasefire is a buying opportunity, especially during the June-July dip when high raw material costs hit earnings.

US solar companies First Solar and T1 Energy have surged due to US policies excluding Chinese solar content, granting them premium valuations. This re-rating is expected to persist as the OBBA Act further restricts Chinese participation in the US solar market.