u/CLE_Watches

CMCSA trades at 5.8x FCF, has a $15–16B FCF run rate, and is retiring 5.5% of shares annually via buybacks while paying a 5.35% dividend. The market discounts broadband threats (fiber, 5G, Starlink) that the author argues are overblown; meanwhile, the debt structure (87B at 4.6% avg rate, 16yr duration, 10x coverage) is solid and buybacks are highly accretive at current multiples. Even with zero organic growth, share repurchases alone drive 5–6% annual EPS growth. The author’s fair value estimate of $87/share (vs $25) implies massive upside. The downside is cushioned by the dividend yield. Faster-than-expected broadband subscriber losses; failure of Peacock to achieve sustained profitability; a recession hitting theme parks/advertising; refinancing risks if rates stay high longer than 4.6% average.