u/caladhun

Microvast is restructuring US subsidiaries (new LLC, dissolving old entities) after surrendering air permit for NMC cell production. CEO holds a 10b5-1 plan adopted at $3, has not sold yet, and faces a May 28 loan maturity that converts to ~53M shares. The restructuring suggests asset isolation for a potential JV or buyout by Oshkosh, while extremely low expectations for Q1 earnings create a beat-and-run catalyst. CEO’s refusal to sell at $2 implies he expects shares to go higher. Bet on a Q1 earnings surprise (May 11 AH) and continued restructuring news to lift MVST from $2 toward $5+ by October 2025. June calls offer short-term leverage. Q1 earnings miss; no Oshkosh deal materializes; CEO sells into the 10b5-1 plan; further dilution from loan conversion; going concern risk if US revenue doesn’t sustain.