Tom Lee

1. THE FACT: Fundstrat suggests the weakness in crypto has all the signs of a market maker with a major "hole" in their balance sheet, leading to sharks circling to trigger liquidation/dumping of prices. However, they also state, "Is this pain short-term? Yes. Does this change the $ETH supercycle of Wall Street?" 2. THE BRIDGE: While acknowledging short-term pain due to market maker issues and potential liquidations, Fundstrat maintains a long-term bullish view on the "ETH supercycle" and implies the current weakness is temporary. This suggests an opportunity to buy on dips for long-term holders. 3. THE VERDICT: Current crypto weakness is short-term and driven by market maker issues, but the long-term bullish "ETH supercycle" remains intact, presenting a buying opportunity.

1. THE FACT: Fundstrat claims to have found "bottom tick Charlie" and declares, "The bottom is in for stocks and crypto." 2. THE BRIDGE: This is a direct call that the market (both traditional stocks and crypto) has hit its lowest point and is poised for a recovery. This implies current prices are attractive for long positions. 3. THE VERDICT: The bottom for stocks and crypto is in, signaling a buying opportunity.

1. THE FACT: Fundstrat suggests the weakness in crypto has all the signs of a market maker with a major "hole" in their balance sheet, leading to sharks circling to trigger liquidation/dumping of prices. However, they also state, "Is this pain short-term? Yes. Does this change the $ETH supercycle of Wall Street?" 2. THE BRIDGE: While acknowledging short-term pain due to market maker issues and potential liquidations, Fundstrat maintains a long-term bullish view on the "ETH supercycle" and implies the current weakness is temporary. This suggests an opportunity to buy on dips for long-term holders. 3. THE VERDICT: Current crypto weakness is short-term and driven by market maker issues, but the long-term bullish "ETH supercycle" remains intact, presenting a buying opportunity.

1. THE FACT: Fundstrat states, "This is the reality in crypto Near a bottom, but as my friend Eric S says, bottoms are ‘ugly’." 2. THE BRIDGE: While acknowledging that bottoms can be volatile and unpleasant, the core message is that crypto assets are "near a bottom." This suggests that current price levels are close to the lowest point before a potential recovery, making them attractive for accumulation despite potential short-term choppiness. 3. THE VERDICT: Crypto is near a bottom, indicating a buying opportunity despite potential short-term volatility.

Scott Wapner suggests AI is a "shooting gallery" taking down software stocks. Lee counters: "To me, I think what we're seeing is that there is a payoff coming from AI... It ultimately is productivity." The market consensus is currently fearful that AI will replace traditional software (SaaS) companies, leading to a sell-off. Lee argues the "Second-Order Effect": AI is actually a tool that these companies will integrate to drastically improve their own productivity and product value. The current bearish sentiment on software is a mispricing of this productivity boom. LONG. Buy the software dip caused by AI fears, betting on the productivity realization. If AI adoption slows or if "Hyperscalers" stop spending (as noted by the host), the productivity thesis may be delayed.

1. THE FACT: "Nov CPI released this am - Core CPI YoY 2.6% vs 3.0% - massive 0.40bp undershoot. Inflation falling like a rock🪨. Positive YE rally: - equities $SPY $IWM $QQQ - crypto Bitcoin and Ethereum $BTC $ETH" 2. THE BRIDGE: Lower-than-expected CPI data (inflation falling) is presented as a catalyst for a positive year-end rally in equities (SPY, IWM, QQQ) and crypto (BTC, ETH). 3. THE VERDICT: Falling inflation (CPI undershoot) will drive a year-end rally in broad equities and major cryptocurrencies.

ORBS presents a deeply discounted public market vehicle to gain exposure to OpenAI, trading at just 1x NAV compared to peers like VCX trading at 25x NAV.

Host Leslie Picker notes these specific tickers are trading up/better despite geopolitical fears. Tom Lee responds, "March was the makings of a bottom... the Mag-7 and the Cryptos... are outperforming. And I think that's a sign of leadership." When high-beta growth stocks (AI/Tech) ignore macro fear and rise while the broad market is choppy, it indicates smart money is stepping in. These assets are leading the recovery, suggesting the "winter" for tech is over. Long exposure to these specific mega-cap tech names as the leaders of the next rally. Escalation in geopolitical conflict causing a broad liquidity crunch that drags down even high-quality tech.

"Software stocks broadly, the entire complex kind of has fallen back to where they were last April. To me, that's clearly an overreaction... start to see some of the groups that got hit hard mean revert, including the Mag-7." The market has aggressively punished high-growth tech and AI names recently. These valuations have reset to attractive levels, suggesting the selling is exhausted and a technical bounce is imminent. LONG Magnificent 7 (MAGS) and Software (IGV) for a mean-reversion trade. Continued sector rotation out of tech if inflation fears persist.

1. THE FACT: Silver ($SLV) has been parabolic in the past month, and Gold ($GLD) has been parabolic in the past year. Gold moves typically lead crypto. 2. THE BRIDGE: The strong parabolic moves in large commodity markets like silver and gold, which historically lead crypto, suggest that one should not be skeptical of digital assets in 2026. 3. THE VERDICT: Long digital assets (ETH, BTC) in 2026, following the strong performance of gold and silver.

Semiconductors still have good risk-reward because the forward P/E of the semi index is only 22x, well below historical peaks of 35x, while earnings are strong and the AI-driven scarcity of compute supports demand.

"Oil is going to create a price shock... Oil companies obviously are going to reap some benefits." Geopolitical tension in the Middle East disrupts supply chains. While bad for the consumer, this directly increases margins and profitability for US-based oil producers and the commodity itself. LONG Energy producers and Oil futures proxies. Rapid de-escalation of geopolitical tension causing oil prices to plummet.

Buy EWY as South Korea's emergency financial authority meeting signals policymaker panic — historically a contrarian bullish inflection point per Tepper's framework, suggesting the market selloff is near exhaustion.

Tech stocks, including the Magnificent 7 and software, should lead the next leg of the market rally because they offer the best earnings growth, valuations have fallen making them attractive, they are under-owned, and they have true moats with consistent earnings growth faster than the S&P.

Alternative inflation data (Truflation) suggests official CPI will fall significantly in the coming months, which would be bullish for long-duration bonds as yields would likely decrease.