Сигналы
40
#272
Альфа-оценка 78.7
Luke Gromen
Основатель, Forest for the Trees
Винрейт
48.7%
доходность
+2.7%
Загрузка графиков...
Тикер
Сторона
Упоминания
Первый колл
Цена колла
P&L
Тезис
Тема
Источник
Лонг
15 дек
$395.80
+0.3%
1. THE FACT: Luke Gromen asks if dimes and quarters will be 90% silver again, implying a return to a precious metal-backed currency or increased value for silver.
2. THE BRIDGE: A historical reference to silver content in coinage suggests a potential future scenario where precious metals regain monetary significance or value, driven by macro factors.
3. THE VERDICT: Long precious metals (silver and by extension gold) on the potential for a return to a precious metal-backed system or increased intrinsic value.
1. THE FACT: Luke Gromen asks if dimes and quarters will be 90% silver again, implying a return to a precious metal-backed currency or increased value for silver.
2. THE BRIDGE: A historical reference to silver content in coinage suggests a potential future scenario where precious metals regain monetary significance or value, driven by macro factors.
3. THE VERDICT: Long precious metals (silver and by extension gold) on the potential for a return to a precious metal-backed system or increased intrinsic value.
Сырьё
Лонг
17 дек
$68.18
+107.0%
1. THE FACT: Venezuela nationalized its oil industry 26-50 years ago, and this becoming a "sticking point in 2025" is an "important signpost on numerous other macro factors (oil supplies, USD, China, etc.)".
2. THE BRIDGE: The re-emergence of Venezuela's nationalized oil industry as a significant macro factor suggests potential disruptions or shifts in global oil supplies, which would likely drive oil prices higher.
3. THE VERDICT: Long oil and energy stocks due to potential disruptions in global oil supplies signaled by Venezuela's nationalized oil industry becoming a key macro factor.
1. THE FACT: Venezuela nationalized its oil industry 26-50 years ago, and this becoming a "sticking point in 2025" is an "important signpost on numerous other macro factors (oil supplies, USD, China, etc.)".
2. THE BRIDGE: The re-emergence of Venezuela's nationalized oil industry as a significant macro factor suggests potential disruptions or shifts in global oil supplies, which would likely drive oil prices higher.
3. THE VERDICT: Long oil and energy stocks due to potential disruptions in global oil supplies signaled by Venezuela's nationalized oil industry becoming a key macro factor.
Сырьё
Лонг
18 мар
$74027.30
+4.4%
The author projects a future macro use-case for Bitcoin as a settlement asset for sovereign deficits, which would create a major new source of demand.
The author projects a future macro use-case for Bitcoin as a settlement asset for sovereign deficits, which would create a major new source of demand.
Криптоактивы
Лонг
21 янв
$83.96
-31.0%
1. THE FACT: China deindustrializes the west by manufacturing for no profits. The US has grown Federal debt by 8% CAGR since 2008 while USTs have rarely yielded much above 4%. Making no money in manufacturing is better than losing 4-8% CAGR in USTs on a real basis, because at least you end up with factories.
2. THE BRIDGE: This implies a fundamental flaw in the current financial system (negative real yields on USTs, unsustainable debt growth) and a shift towards tangible assets (factories, and by extension, hard money like gold/silver/platinum/palladium) as a store of value.
3. THE VERDICT: Long hard assets (precious metals) as a hedge against unsustainable US debt growth and negative real yields on Treasuries.
1. THE FACT: China deindustrializes the west by manufacturing for no profits. The US has grown Federal debt by 8% CAGR since 2008 while USTs have rarely yielded much above 4%. Making no money in manufacturing is better than losing 4-8% CAGR in USTs on a real basis, because at least you end up with factories.
2. THE BRIDGE: This implies a fundamental flaw in the current financial system (negative real yields on USTs, unsustainable debt growth) and a shift towards tangible assets (factories, and by extension, hard money like gold/silver/platinum/palladium) as a store of value.
3. THE VERDICT: Long hard assets (precious metals) as a hedge against unsustainable US debt growth and negative real yields on Treasuries.
Сырьё
Шорт
05 мар
$88.79
+7.8%
Gromen states, "Ultimately, every time the dollar gets too strong, the treasury market is going to dysfunction. It is a mathematical certainty." He explicitly advises to be "short bonds" and "short duration." As oil prices rise (due to Iran/Hormuz conflict), foreign nations (importers) must sell their US Treasury reserves to raise cash to buy expensive oil. This creates a massive "natural seller" of Treasuries, driving prices down and yields up. SHORT long-duration US Treasuries as foreign central banks liquidate holdings to fund energy needs. The Federal Reserve implementing Yield Curve Control (YCC) to cap rates, which would force bond prices up artificially.
Gromen states, "Ultimately, every time the dollar gets too strong, the treasury market is going to dysfunction. It is a mathematical certainty." He explicitly advises to be "short bonds" and "short duration." As oil prices rise (due to Iran/Hormuz conflict), foreign nations (importers) must sell their US Treasury reserves to raise cash to buy expensive oil. This creates a massive "natural seller" of Treasuries, driving prices down and yields up. SHORT long-duration US Treasuries as foreign central banks liquidate holdings to fund energy needs. The Federal Reserve implementing Yield Curve Control (YCC) to cap rates, which would force bond prices up artificially.
Облигации и ставки
Лонг
20 фев
$243.45
-7.2%
The US will be forced to increase domestic defense spending to secure its supply chain from China, as the integrity of the US defense industrial base is critical to backing the US dollar.
The US will be forced to increase domestic defense spending to secure its supply chain from China, as the integrity of the US defense industrial base is critical to backing the US dollar.
Тематические ETF
Лонг
05 мар
$53.02
+1.4%
Gromen explicitly mentions he has a "very large position in electrical infrastructure equities" and names the "PAVE ETF" and "GRID ETF" as examples of well-positioned assets. Regardless of war or interest rates, the US is forced to modernize its grid and reshore manufacturing. This spending is non-discretionary and structural, providing a floor for these companies even in a recession. LONG US Infrastructure and Grid modernization plays. Supply chain disruptions preventing materials from reaching these projects.
Gromen explicitly mentions he has a "very large position in electrical infrastructure equities" and names the "PAVE ETF" and "GRID ETF" as examples of well-positioned assets. Regardless of war or interest rates, the US is forced to modernize its grid and reshore manufacturing. This spending is non-discretionary and structural, providing a floor for these companies even in a recession. LONG US Infrastructure and Grid modernization plays. Supply chain disruptions preventing materials from reaching these projects.
Тематические ETF
Лонг
17 дек
$44.88
+44.5%
1. THE FACT: Venezuela nationalized its oil industry 26-50 years ago, and this becoming a "sticking point in 2025" is an "important signpost on numerous other macro factors (oil supplies, USD, China, etc.)".
2. THE BRIDGE: The re-emergence of Venezuela's nationalized oil industry as a significant macro factor suggests potential disruptions or shifts in global oil supplies, which would likely drive oil prices higher.
3. THE VERDICT: Long oil and energy stocks due to potential disruptions in global oil supplies signaled by Venezuela's nationalized oil industry becoming a key macro factor.
1. THE FACT: Venezuela nationalized its oil industry 26-50 years ago, and this becoming a "sticking point in 2025" is an "important signpost on numerous other macro factors (oil supplies, USD, China, etc.)".
2. THE BRIDGE: The re-emergence of Venezuela's nationalized oil industry as a significant macro factor suggests potential disruptions or shifts in global oil supplies, which would likely drive oil prices higher.
3. THE VERDICT: Long oil and energy stocks due to potential disruptions in global oil supplies signaled by Venezuela's nationalized oil industry becoming a key macro factor.
Тематические ETF
Лонг
24 апр
$713.29
+6.8%
Long SPY relative to short TLT as a secular pair trade, expecting equities to outperform bonds over the long term.
Long SPY relative to short TLT as a secular pair trade, expecting equities to outperform bonds over the long term.
Фондовые индексы
Лонг
12 мар
$46.60
-8.6%
The author is expressing high conviction in a long US electrical infrastructure trade by stating it is one of their largest personal holdings.
The author is expressing high conviction in a long US electrical infrastructure trade by stating it is one of their largest personal holdings.
Тематические ETF
Лонг
05 мар
$168.11
+4.4%
Gromen explicitly mentions he has a "very large position in electrical infrastructure equities" and names the "PAVE ETF" and "GRID ETF" as examples of well-positioned assets. Regardless of war or interest rates, the US is forced to modernize its grid and reshore manufacturing. This spending is non-discretionary and structural, providing a floor for these companies even in a recession. LONG US Infrastructure and Grid modernization plays. Supply chain disruptions preventing materials from reaching these projects.
Gromen explicitly mentions he has a "very large position in electrical infrastructure equities" and names the "PAVE ETF" and "GRID ETF" as examples of well-positioned assets. Regardless of war or interest rates, the US is forced to modernize its grid and reshore manufacturing. This spending is non-discretionary and structural, providing a floor for these companies even in a recession. LONG US Infrastructure and Grid modernization plays. Supply chain disruptions preventing materials from reaching these projects.
Тематические ETF
Лонг
19 фев
$24.43
+30.9%
The author projects a significant rise in commodity prices based on the macro thesis that increasing real wages in China will lead to higher consumption.
The author projects a significant rise in commodity prices based on the macro thesis that increasing real wages in China will lead to higher consumption.
Сырьё
Лонг
14 авг
$86.07
+3.7%
Grid buildout and reshoring require aluminum, stainless steel, copper, and silver. Luke says copper sits at the intersection of inflation, infrastructure, and an underowned market, and that commodities and industrials are back after the anti-Hamiltonian regime.
Сырьё
Лонг
16 апр
$55.29
-20.2%
The cleanest fundamental plays in the current environment are in energy, uranium, domestic electrical infrastructure, and the industrials selling into that sector, due to existing bottlenecks, reshoring impetus, and strategic importance.
Сырьё
Лонг
16 апр
$170.25
+1.6%
The cleanest fundamental plays in the current environment are in energy, uranium, domestic electrical infrastructure, and the industrials selling into that sector, due to existing bottlenecks, reshoring impetus, and strategic importance.
Тематические ETF
Показано 15 из 40 коллов · сортировка по упоминаниям
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У Luke Gromen на Buzzberg отслеживается 40 торговых идей по 38 тикерам с ноября 2025. винрейт 49% по 39 оцененным сигналам, средняя доходность +2.7%. #272 в рейтинге Buzzberg Alpha. Чаще всего покрывает: GOLD, BNO, BTC.
