Jordi Visser

The Crypto Fear

Palantir is uniquely positioned as an "orchestration layer" to capture enterprise AI spending, which will accelerate as the traditional seat-based software model becomes obsolete.

Go long oil (a "scarce" asset) and short "abundant" assets (likely tech/software) due to breaking correlations, a bullish weekly MACD crossover, and an anticipated hot CPI print with a hawkish Fed on hold.

Speaker stated "long commodities, long compute, and short anything built on code." Explicitly cited copper, silver, and DRAM as having gone "through the roof" due to AI-driven demand, noting decades of underinvestment in the necessary hardware. AI demand is infinite and structural, but the physical infrastructure (hardware) has been underinvested in for years. This creates a persistent supply-demand mismatch for the underlying commodities. Commodities are a primary beneficiary of the AI transition and a new source of alpha, replacing software. They are non-cyclical within this new paradigm because AI demand is insatiable. Demand destruction if prices rise too far, too fast. A severe global recession that crushes all demand, including for AI infrastructure.

The author identifies a forward-looking growth catalyst for Corning (GLW), believing that polymers will be the next evolution in optical fiber, benefiting the company.

NDX shorts appear trapped after an 8.7% rally from recent lows — the only comparable 4-day surge above the 200-day MA in 17 years was the Election/Vaccine period of 2020, suggesting continued upside pressure as shorts cover.

Buy NVDA as it reclaims its 20-day moving average, holds the 200-day, triggers a MACD buy signal, and trades at its lowest valuation in a decade — multiple technical and fundamental catalysts converging simultaneously after a multi-week consolidation.

Short semiconductor ETF as the AI Mid-Cycle Slowdown drives momentum volatility and investor frustration in AI equities; author explicitly pairs this short against a BTC long as the cycle matures.

Buy LLY as an AI applications beneficiary — GLP-1 cash flows fund proprietary data assets and specialized AI platforms (LillyPod, TuneLab), positioning it as a leader in the next phase of AI value creation beyond infrastructure.

Go long ORCL as it breaks above its 50-day moving average, supported by a macro thesis of a global compute shortage for AI.

Long VIX as a hedge against long positions until the VIX gets up to 30 on some of the later contracts, as the market is in a repricing phase with expected volatility.

Speaker states, "Micron is the biggest position in my own personal portfolio. It's trading now at a 4 PE off next year's earnings..." Micron is a direct play on the memory (DRAM) bottleneck created by AI compute demand. The speaker has previously noted DRAM prices are up 400-500%, yet the market is valuing Micron as if this boom is temporary. LONG due to a combination of explosive fundamental demand for its products and a deeply discounted valuation that does not reflect the structural nature of the AI-driven demand shift. A catastrophic collapse in memory pricing due to a rapid increase in industry supply or a sharp drop in demand.

Speaker explicitly groups "semiconductors" with Bitcoin and silver as assets to take "over anything related to gold." He states the demand for compute is "infinite" due to the agentic AI era. The transition to agentic AI requires a thousand times more compute than the chatbot era. This creates a massive, sustained demand boom for the underlying hardware, with supply unable to keep up in the near term. LONG because the sector is a direct, fundamental beneficiary of the core AI infrastructure build-out, with demand structurally outstripping supply. A sudden, unforeseen slowdown in AI adoption or a breakthrough in compute efficiency that drastically reduces hardware demand.

The speaker stated we are entering a "decade" of underinvestment in the hardware needed for AI, and energy prices are going up. Infinite AI demand requires massive energy for compute and infrastructure, but supply has been underinvested, creating a structural supply-demand imbalance. Long energy minerals due to sustained, rising demand from AI infrastructure build-out against constrained supply. A severe global economic slowdown reduces overall energy demand, or alternative energy sources scale faster than expected.

The speaker stated to "short, anything built on code" and called software a "dead asset" that will face a structural headwind. AI is directly disruptive to software business models by automating tasks and reducing the need for certain software, leading to multiple compression even if earnings grow. Avoid the technology services (software) sector due to a broken growth narrative and structural disruption from AI. Software companies successfully pivot and monetize AI tools faster than they are disrupted by them.