Сигналы
19
#1078
Альфа-оценка 15.5
Jim Bianco
Президент, Bianco Research
Винрейт
42.1%
доходность
-2.4%
Загрузка графиков...
Тикер
Сторона
Упоминания
Первый колл
Цена колла
P&L
Тезис
Тема
Источник
Лонг
04 мар
$91.56
+54.2%
"I would probably term them more fair value... they're probably a decent investment that you can put your money into and probably get mid-single digit returns." Commodities have run up due to Asian demand (hedging against local economic failure) and the realization of a sticky inflation world. While no longer "cheap," they fit the "4-5-6" return model and offer protection against geopolitical shocks or sticky inflation. LONG (Hold) for steady, mid-single-digit compounding. A resolution to Asian economic woes could lead to selling (profit-taking) from Asian investors.
"I would probably term them more fair value... they're probably a decent investment that you can put your money into and probably get mid-single digit returns." Commodities have run up due to Asian demand (hedging against local economic failure) and the realization of a sticky inflation world. While no longer "cheap," they fit the "4-5-6" return model and offer protection against geopolitical shocks or sticky inflation. LONG (Hold) for steady, mid-single-digit compounding. A resolution to Asian economic woes could lead to selling (profit-taking) from Asian investors.
Сырьё
Шорт
11 фев
$88.06
+7.1%
Payrolls surprised upside (130k), and inflation remains sticky around 3%. The market is perpetually pricing in cuts that don't happen. If data stays strong, the neutral rate is likely higher (4%), meaning yields must rise (prices fall). SHORT US Treasuries (Expect higher yields). A sudden economic cliff dive necessitating emergency cuts.
Payrolls surprised upside (130k), and inflation remains sticky around 3%. The market is perpetually pricing in cuts that don't happen. If data stays strong, the neutral rate is likely higher (4%), meaning yields must rise (prices fall). SHORT US Treasuries (Expect higher yields). A sudden economic cliff dive necessitating emergency cuts.
Облигации и ставки
Лонг
17 июн
$86.27
-5.1%
ФРС, которая привержена борьбе с инфляцией и бдительно следит за ценовой стабильностью, в конечном итоге должна положительно повлиять на долгосрочные облигации, поскольку это закрепляет долгосрочные инфляционные ожидания и предотвращает неконтролируемый рост доходности. Исторический пример 2022 года показывает, что, когда ФРС поддалась панике и начала агрессивное повышение ставок, инвесторы в облигации смогли удержать позиции. Сегодняшнее «ястребиное» послание председателя Уорша подтверждает, что ФРС не позволит инфляции выйти из-под контроля, что в долгосрочной перспективе благоприятно для долгосрочных облигаций.
Облигации и ставки
Лонг
02 июн
$196.81
-6.7%
The AI trade remains the dominant market theme and has further upside. AI has the potential to replace the entire software stack, concentrating spending away from many SaaS products into a single AI context window. This justifies the current high valuations and concentration in AI-related stocks (48% of S&P 500). While risky, the AI trade is not a bubble and still has room to run.
Тематические ETF
Лонг
14 июн
$64.00
+0.0%
The AI trade still has room to run; it is high risk but also high reward, and he would continue playing it.
Тематические ETF
Лонг
20 мая
$110.37
-3.1%
TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) offer attractive real yields of 2.5-3% above inflation, providing a safe diversifier in a 5-7% return portfolio and a hedge against rising inflation.
Облигации и ставки
Шорт
13 мар
$117.37
-20.3%
If Iran allows oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the geopolitical risk premium will evaporate, causing crude oil prices to drop significantly.
If Iran allows oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the geopolitical risk premium will evaporate, causing crude oil prices to drop significantly.
Сырьё
Лонг
09 мар
$677.71
+12.4%
The resolution of the Iran conflict is a risk-on catalyst for equities, as reflected by the S&P 500's gains.
The resolution of the Iran conflict is a risk-on catalyst for equities, as reflected by the S&P 500's gains.
Фондовые индексы
Шорт
04 мар
$96.81
+4.9%
"If four is the neutral funds rate, then about four and a half is the neutral two-year note and around low fives is the neutral five. We're about a 100 basis points below those." Bond yields and prices move inversely. Bianco argues the market is mispricing yields by ~100 basis points too low. As the market accepts the "3% inflation world," yields must rise to 5-6%, causing bond prices (TLT/IEF) to fall. SHORT long-duration Treasuries to capture the move to higher yields. A sudden economic collapse or recession could force yields down (flight to safety).
"If four is the neutral funds rate, then about four and a half is the neutral two-year note and around low fives is the neutral five. We're about a 100 basis points below those." Bond yields and prices move inversely. Bianco argues the market is mispricing yields by ~100 basis points too low. As the market accepts the "3% inflation world," yields must rise to 5-6%, causing bond prices (TLT/IEF) to fall. SHORT long-duration Treasuries to capture the move to higher yields. A sudden economic collapse or recession could force yields down (flight to safety).
Облигации и ставки
Лонг
04 мар
$75.34
-23.1%
"I would probably term them more fair value... they're probably a decent investment that you can put your money into and probably get mid-single digit returns." Commodities have run up due to Asian demand (hedging against local economic failure) and the realization of a sticky inflation world. While no longer "cheap," they fit the "4-5-6" return model and offer protection against geopolitical shocks or sticky inflation. LONG (Hold) for steady, mid-single-digit compounding. A resolution to Asian economic woes could lead to selling (profit-taking) from Asian investors.
"I would probably term them more fair value... they're probably a decent investment that you can put your money into and probably get mid-single digit returns." Commodities have run up due to Asian demand (hedging against local economic failure) and the realization of a sticky inflation world. While no longer "cheap," they fit the "4-5-6" return model and offer protection against geopolitical shocks or sticky inflation. LONG (Hold) for steady, mid-single-digit compounding. A resolution to Asian economic woes could lead to selling (profit-taking) from Asian investors.
Сырьё
Шорт
07 авг
$1.20
-15.0%
Short United Wholesale Mortgage; CEO Mat Ishiba's dual sports-team ownership (Phoenix Suns + option on White Sox) signals management distraction as a structural deterioration mechanism, consistent with the company's 40% plunge and dividend suspension.
Финансы недвижимости
Лонг
03 авг
$9.73
+6.0%
Every technology eventually ends in a bubble, and AI will be no different. However, the bubble is likely still a couple of years away because the current narrative is one of compute constraint and under-usage by knowledge workers. The key risk that could accelerate the bubble and cause a bust is a sudden technological advance (from China or the U.S.) that makes existing data-center capacity massively overbuilt. This is a development worth monitoring as it would trigger the eventual AI overcapacity and bubble peak.
ПО для ИИ
Шорт
25 мая
$180.07
-42.5%
Short CRM because customers will switch to a cheaper, tested AI alternative, forcing CRM to cut costs or lose market share.
Short CRM because customers will switch to a cheaper, tested AI alternative, forcing CRM to cut costs or lose market share.
ПО для ИИ
Лонг
01 мая
$31.10
+2.8%
The Strait of Hormuz blockade will be protracted because there is no military solution and Iran is willing to endure economic pain. This will keep oil prices elevated for an extended period. The December 2026 Brent crude oil futures contract is making new highs, indicating the market does not expect a quick resolution. Jim Bianco recommends long oil positions via DBC (Deutsche Bank commodity index ETF), USO, or direct crude oil futures.
Сырьё
Лонг
12 апр
$73.96
+19.0%
Buy tanker stocks (e.g., TNK) because the rerouting of Middle Eastern crude to the US will dramatically increase ton-mile demand, while fleet expansion is a 3-5 year process, supporting higher day rates.
Buy tanker stocks (e.g., TNK) because the rerouting of Middle Eastern crude to the US will dramatically increase ton-mile demand, while fleet expansion is a 3-5 year process, supporting higher day rates.
Морские перевозки и танкеры
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У Jim Bianco на Buzzberg отслеживается 19 торговых идей по 17 тикерам с ноября 2025. винрейт 42% по 19 оцененным сигналам, средняя доходность -2.4%. #1078 в рейтинге Buzzberg Alpha. Чаще всего покрывает: BNO, TLT, XLK.
