Jason Shapiro

Buy BTC exclusively over all other crypto assets; speaker asserts asymmetric upside to $1M from ~$75K makes alternatives not worth pursuing, though no structural catalyst or mechanism is provided.

Author holds a Feb call spread on XLE (energy sector ETF), expressing a short-term bullish directional view via defined-risk options. No explicit catalyst stated beyond the position disclosure.

Gold has been in a bear market since January as the narrative of higher rates hurting gold dominated. However, now interest rates are making new highs but gold and silver have stopped falling, indicating the narrative is breaking down. Sentiment is extremely weak (miners struggling to raise capital, nobody wants to finance gold), which creates a favorable risk/reward for a long position. He prefers buying gold over bonds.

Crude oil positioning is the least long since before the Iran war, recency bias has burned traders who bought on war fears, so they are afraid to buy again. This lack of participation means crude has upside legs. The Economist apologies for being wrong on July 1st marked the exact low, a contrarian signal. Crude is trading very well and likely to move higher sustainably.

AI-related stocks across five subsectors (power supply, cooling infrastructure, compute hardware, network connectivity, materials/rare earths) are in a clear bull market, driven by fundamental necessity and price momentum. The AI revolution is a hard trend to fade because it is essential for national defense and corporate future-readiness, requiring massive capital expenditure (capex). While volatile and frothy at times, this is the area to concentrate on for bullish exposure.

Shapiro observes a clear market rotation where "materials are leading" and "energies are leading," while the Mag 7 (Tech) are lagging. He explicitly states, "I love the materials trade." This is a second-order AI trade. The market realizes that to build out AI, you need physical inputs (energy, copper, construction materials) which are in shortage. The "19th Century businesses" are now the growth engine for the "21st Century innovators." LONG Materials (XLB), Energy (XLE), and Miners (GDX) as they are under-owned by the S&P 500 relative to Tech. A deep global recession crushing demand for physical commodities.

Shapiro notes there is "one of the largest ever short positioning in TLT in history." Simultaneously, despite the "Mag 7" needing to borrow massive amounts of money (which should hurt bonds), bond prices are rising and spreads haven't budged. When a market moves in the opposite direction of what "should" happen (fundamentals say down, price goes up) combined with extreme crowded short positioning, it indicates a violent reversal. The shorts are trapped and will be forced to cover, driving prices higher regardless of the macro narrative. LONG TLT to front-run the inevitable short squeeze. Inflation re-accelerating significantly could force yields higher despite positioning.

Shapiro observes a clear market rotation where "materials are leading" and "energies are leading," while the Mag 7 (Tech) are lagging. He explicitly states, "I love the materials trade." This is a second-order AI trade. The market realizes that to build out AI, you need physical inputs (energy, copper, construction materials) which are in shortage. The "19th Century businesses" are now the growth engine for the "21st Century innovators." LONG Materials (XLB), Energy (XLE), and Miners (GDX) as they are under-owned by the S&P 500 relative to Tech. A deep global recession crushing demand for physical commodities.

Author holds a Feb put spread on CRWV, expressing a short-term bearish view via defined-risk options structure. No explicit catalyst stated beyond the position disclosure.

Author purchased INTC Jan puts, expressing a near-term bearish view on Intel; the editorial "can't make it up" suggests the trade was timed around a notable event or ironic catalyst, reinforcing conviction in the bearish position.

Author holds a Jan/March call spread on NFLX, expressing a near-to-medium-term bullish directional view via defined-risk options. No explicit catalyst stated beyond the position disclosure.

Author holds a Feb put spread on NVDA, expressing a short-term bearish view via defined-risk options. No explicit catalyst stated beyond the position disclosure.

Author holds a Jan/Feb put spread on PLTR, expressing a near-term bearish directional view via defined-risk options structure. No explicit catalyst stated beyond the position disclosure.