Jacob Shapiro

The speaker stated his pre-war investment position was "long fertilizer" and identified it as a critical, lean supply chain vulnerable to the Hormuz disruption. Fertilizer production relies on feedstocks transiting the Strait. Disruption has already caused missed application windows globally, leading to lower crop yields and higher food prices 6-9 months out. Long fertilizer is a direct play on impending physical shortages and the resulting price inflation in agricultural inputs, exacerbated by the conflict. A rapid conflict resolution and release of global fertilizer reserves that alleviate near-term scarcity.

The speaker stated his pre-war investment position was "long energy" and that the Iran conflict is an "accelerant" to those existing trends. The war disrupts global energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz, damaging infrastructure and creating lasting uncertainty, which supports higher prices and rewards secure producers. Being long the energy sector is a hedge and a direct play on the accelerated fracturing of global energy supply chains and rising geopolitical risk premiums. A swift, durable resolution to the conflict that fully restores transit and repairs infrastructure faster than expected.

The speaker stated his pre-war investment position was "long food," linking it to the broader theme of securing essential supply chains. The war disrupts fertilizer and energy inputs critical for food production and distribution, creating physical shortages and inflationary pressure, particularly in vulnerable emerging markets. Being long food is a play on rising prices and scarcity in a essential, inelastic commodity sector, driven by cascading supply chain effects from the conflict. A bumper global harvest or successful diplomatic intervention that stabilizes fertilizer and energy inputs quickly.