Geoffrey Yu

European equity strength does not imply a stronger euro. His high-conviction trade is that the euro comes off from current levels, not only against the dollar but also on the crosses.

Geoffrey still likes APAC currencies as selective FX trades, favoring those with heavier current account surpluses. Korea is already performing, and he is looking at the Taiwan dollar and yen as other trades.

Europe is actually improving, so the current momentum in European equity markets can continue from here.

US yields are high but breakevens have not moved as much, so real rates remain robust. Domestic investors such as pension funds and LDI managers, as well as international investors, would want to own these robust real rates, and BNY is seeing that in its own data.

Despite being major oil importers, Korea and Taiwan are currently the "two best markets in the world." Investors are prioritizing the AI/Tech hardware cycle (which drives these economies) over the energy input cost shock. The market positioning suggests resilience in high-tech manufacturing hubs. Long Korea (EWY) and Taiwan (EWT) as they are attracting capital flight from other EMs. If oil prices stay elevated for too long, the current account deficits in these nations will eventually erode currency and equity value.

Despite being major oil importers, Korea and Taiwan are currently the "two best markets in the world." Investors are prioritizing the AI/Tech hardware cycle (which drives these economies) over the energy input cost shock. The market positioning suggests resilience in high-tech manufacturing hubs. Long Korea (EWY) and Taiwan (EWT) as they are attracting capital flight from other EMs. If oil prices stay elevated for too long, the current account deficits in these nations will eventually erode currency and equity value.