Iran has the capability to completely shut down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at any point, and the ongoing US-Iran conflict with calibrated strikes is far from a ceasefire, keeping a floor under oil prices. Even if a deal is reached, oil may not return to pre-war levels until next year.
The Iran conflict with no direct negotiations will prolong oil supply disruptions, while Russia's diesel export ban adds further pressure; robust US fuel demand and falling inventories keep crude and diesel prices elevated, with no resolution in sight.
Europe is losing a global fight for LNG as it delays purchases pending Strait of Hormuz reopening, faces competition from Asia, limited US export capacity, and risk of Qatari LNG facility attacks, threatening winter stock refill and driving higher European natural gas prices.