Capital Flows

Oracle is the only company that is basically levering up really aggressively and pulling all negative returns into the present and pushing all future returns into the or all exponential returns into the future. Larry Ellison is aggressively using the company's balance sheet and capex to build AI infrastructure. Because he owns 40% of the company and they have heavily bought back shares, the public float is incredibly small. The recent stock drawdown has already priced in the heavy capex, creating a bottoming formation before the exponential AI revenue is realized. LONG. Oracle is a high-conviction, leveraged play on AI infrastructure with a tightly controlled float and a founder aggressively aligning the balance sheet for massive future growth. AI capex fails to generate the expected exponential returns, or competitors like xAI outcompete them in the specific infrastructure race Ellison is betting on.

Qualcomm had a false breakdown on its long-term chart while semis were rallying, creating an idiosyncratic mispricing. The author stacked macro regime, sector flow (SMH), and the specific setup to buy leaps, which appreciated 700%.