The financial oil market is too complacent about the Middle East conflict; physical oil prices are rising while implied volatility in oil futures has halved. The conflict could linger or worsen, so oil prices should rise toward physical levels, and even six-month futures are too low. This makes oil a buy.
Treasury buybacks capping long yields support gold.
The US Treasury's plan to buy back longer-dated bonds signals early fiscal dominance and an intent to keep long-end yields in check, which weakens the dollar and provides a strong positive signal for gold.
Strong earnings momentum supports near-term US equities.
US earnings momentum is exceptionally strong with high margins, which can support the equity market in the near term despite median GDP growth, though next year could be challenging if margins compress.