u/EmotionalCupcake3303 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· 2026년 7월 29일, 18:03
· ⬆ 15 포인트
· 💬 33 개 댓글
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AI 요약
=== 요약 ===
- 이 게시물은 Adobe(ADBE)가 단순 DCF 모델을 사용하여 현재 가격(~$267)에서 적정 가치로 평가되며 싸지 않다고 주장합니다.
- 작성자는 AI가 강력한 수직 통합과 레거시 종속으로 인해 Adobe의 사업을 방해하지 않을 것이라고 믿지만, 10년간 8.5%의 매출 성장 가정은 관대할 수 있습니다.
- 품질 평가: 명확한 DCF 가정을 가진 적절히 잘 조사된 실사(DD)이지만, 주관적인 성장/마진 추정에 의존합니다. 투기적이지 않지만, 강력 매수 또는 매도 의견은 아닙니다.
=== 심리 ===
중립
=== 매매 아이디어 ===
이 게시물에는 실행 가능한 매매 아이디어가 없습니다. 작성자는 Adobe가 적정 가치라고 결론지으며, 매수나 매도 기회가 아님을 시사합니다. 명시적인 포지션이나 방향성 거래는 제안되지 않았습니다.
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Adobe is probably the face of the SAAS apocalypse. Can't think of many software companies that are as big and lost as much from their all time highs. The narrative that AI is to blame, to me, doesn't make too much sense. Imo the price was simply too high to begin with.
Doing a simple DCF proves the point:
\-In the last few years Adobe revenues grew by around 10% per year. We can therefore estimate for the next 10 years a lower yearly revenue growth of about 8.5% (which is generous). That leads to a revenue of about 52.2 B$ per year 10 years from now.
\-opearting margin has been more or less stable at around 34% so we can assume it will stay the same
\-the return rate/discount rate should be of at least 10% since you are taking a risk by investing in a single stock. The return should therefore be higher than the market average.
\-terminal growth and market rate are both estimated at 2% a year
with these assumptions I get a fair value price of **267.43$** which is about the same of the current market price as of 29.07.2026 after the recent rise.
calculation source: [https://www.insicard.com/community/dcf/6a67bfcba362f645907f87d8](https://www.insicard.com/community/dcf/6a67bfcba362f645907f87d8)
These DCF parameters assume that Adobe will remain the market leader (which I think is the case) and that AI will not demolish its business model (which I also think is the case).
The main point I have to defend this thesis is that Adobe has a very strong vertical integration in its customers. It's legacy software with all sorts of integrations and market effects. I don't think that slighly stronger LLMS will be able to replicate for cheaper what Adobe has created in the last decades. It's a bit like saying companies will stop to use microsoft office because now there is AI that can make it better and cheaper. Recent evidence shows that AI development, especially for big software projects, has severe problems both in terms of token costs, reliability and maintainability of the code base.
With current AI tech stack and its likely evolution over the next years I don't see Adobe suite being rebuilt wtih vibe coding and deployed in all major fortune 500 customers.