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[https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1v958ys/can\_someone\_explain\_the\_apple\_share\_price\_like\_im/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1v958ys/can_someone_explain_the_apple_share_price_like_im/)
The actual five-year-old version fits in one sentence: every AI, no matter who makes it, lives behind a screen, and apple owns the screens. everything below is that sentence with numbers attached.
Last reported quarter was $111.2B, up 17%, a march-quarter record, with services at an all-time high of $31B growing 16%. the microwave company grew double digits. that alone doesn't justify 40x, but it changes the question.
Apple doesn't build frontier models, and that's turning out to be the winning move rather than the failure everyone called it last year. openai, anthropic and google are burning hundreds of billions fighting the model war. whoever wins, their AI reaches you through a screen, and apple owns 2.5 billion of them, an all-time high. services is the tax collected at that gate, $31B a quarter and compounding at 16%. the neutral arms dealer gets paid by every side.
The share story quietly improved this year too, and the memory crisis is the surprising reason. global smartphone shipments just fell to a 13-year low for a second quarter because DRAM prices exploded, and android makers who buy memory at market prices had to raise prices. apple, sitting on long-term supply contracts, was the only major OEM that didn't. result: a record 20% global shipment share last quarter, units up 3% into a collapsing market. The price gap between flagship androids and iphones has narrowed to the point where an iphone reads as decent value for the first time in years.
When your rivals' costs blow up and yours don't, share follows. meanwhile samsung, the only real rival at 24%, has its capital and attention locked into the semiconductor war with tsmc and hynix. mobile is not where its money is going right now.
On desktop the story is smaller but the same direction: the AI companies ship mac first, claude and chatgpt both did, and apple silicon's unified memory happens to be the best consumer hardware for running models locally.
Tomorrow's print tests all of this, specifically: does the share gain hold in the iphone number, what do they say about china, and does services stay at 16% while the model war burns cash everywhere else.