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Please find a crack and point it out. Ask anything. Im not in love with the stock. I just cant find a reason why Im able to buy a sovereign ai provider with a signed gov contract for 3.26 a share (a national security contractor).
I bought in early and took profit already. Building back into a position now.
# Hive investment thesis….
TLDR- Im buying the crap out of HIVE. Undervalued data center / sovereign ai provider. Seems to be filling a gap (about 3$ to fill) and is trading at a book value of around 1.5. P/S of about 3. Under 1 bil FF market cap. Valuation metrics are out of date (due to contracts and accumulation of hardware / nvda gpu clusters / land and infrastructure).
DD. I’ve researched the 💩 out of HIVE.
\\\*\\\*\\\*HIVE Digital Technologies\\\*\\\*\\\*
I’ll share the bear cases first. When I researched the bear cases, i resolve every single one as actually positive.
1. Dilution. Biggest concern for a growth company.
Just closed an institutional offering originally 100mil, upsized to 130 mil $ due to over subscription. Proceeds for expansion / accumulation of NVDA hardware (NVDA platinum partner with priority access to hardware).
Institutional investment is positive and the structure of the offering is genius. Second institutional offering same structure (closed in April).
Notes due 2031 and Dilution only occurs if price is over +8.53 (notes can be exercised early if price is above 8.53 for 20 consecutive trading days).
0% interest on capital in a high interest macro environment. Then, Hive has purchased capped call options to mitigate dilution. Notes called back can be paid with cash value or shares. Capped call options ensure capital to pay out or buy back shares. Dilution mitigated enough for me.
The ATM offering open since November 2025 is not share based. It is a dollar value based offering. 215 million $ left to sell.
Hive sold shares on a pop to 7+$, but so did I. They have only sold 85m $. If they needed money for operations, that would be gone.
This is a safety net and selling at the right time. Even if HIVE ever dollar of that offering, that would be less that 60 million shares and would be absorbed in less than 3 days (based on average daily volume) and not impact share price one bit.
Google just sold shares to fund ai expansion. Different, but same.
I check for selling on a regular basis. It’s information you can find in a minute or two.
2. Execution delays. If hardware cannot be delivered, revenue growth will be delayed.
Revenue is growing by well over 100% both yoy and quarter to quarter.
Platinum partnership with NVDA means they get their compute power when it’s available.
Not a concern.
3. Not a USA operator and smaller in scale compared to the largest companies in the world in the ai / data center asset class.
HIVE has a niche in the data center asset class. Sovereign Ai is a matter of national security. Data collected cannot leave the borders of a country.
Not a stretch- they are already a defense contractor with Canada. I think Sweden and Paraguay are next.
They have established infrastructure in Sweden, Canada, and Paraguay. Letter of intent with Sweden, not formal confirmation, but it’s coming.
We have already seen the push back on data centers in the US. No one wants a data center in their town because it drives up electricity cost. The USA will also have strict regulations that delay operation.
Resolved.
4. Restricted Share Units and insider selling.
Hive is executing and the leadership should get paid.
I think Peter Beck sold shares at 12$ to set up something like retirement fund. People were freaking out and I watched a few dollars peal off before price continued upward.
The RSUs… they are in press releases now (at a low) and mature date is like getting insider information only it’s legal and disclosed to everyone... If you take 2 minutes, you can see when the shares mature. That is kinda telling you when you might want to take profit on some of your position.
Any other bear cases you can think of will be dissolved next.
\\\*\\\*\\\*HIVE Bull Case\\\*\\\*\\\*
1. Valuation and financials. NET CASH BALANCE SHEET AND EXCEPTIONALLY LOW DEBT
Book value of 1 5. Prices to sales of -3. Every single other company in the asset class is trading at a premium. HIVE is trading at just above “fair value”.
Net cash balance sheet (unmatched low debt load) and trading at just over book value right now. Revenue is increasing dramatically and organically. Still valued as a bitcoin miner (historically demands lower multiple). Valuation metrics are based on the past quarterly report that is already outdated (as they have signed contracts and acquired gpu’s, land and other infrastructure (search HIVE Boden, Sweden).
\\adjusted ebita is positive. Turning a profit if you remove company determined aggressive 2 year depreciation calculations on hardware. Saving money on taxes.
2. Niche in the data center market. Sovereign AI is a matter of national security and Hive has signed one contract with Canada. Positioned for contracts with Sweden and Paraguay.
Company power and water management.exceeds requirements for government contracts established by the Canadian government -Canadian Sovereign Ai Compute Startegy and exceeds standards outlined by the Canadian Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute.
Massive hyper scalers in the US cannot provide sovereign AI because they have no infrastructure there and no plans for it.
3. Achieving exceptional margins (both for mining and data center operations)Hive has already established / contracted energy sources in all locations. Competitors are scrambling to secure energy and HIVE has already secured their sources.
Utilizes cheaper renewable energy. Established in Paraguay powered by the Utaipu damn.
Boden, Sweden is in the arctic circle and sourced from Nuclear and hydroelectric power.
4. Growth and funding for growth displays shareholder consideration of dilution. Compared to a similar company trading at over 7x book value, hive is increasing revenue by well over 100% yoy, while that competitor is decreasing and taking a loss.
Raw assets and infrastructure increasing constantly and it’s all funded. Cash burn rate is no longer a drain.
5. Institutional investment is increasing and at an ATH.
Finding a company as before institutional investment enters can be life changing.
Investing in RKLB before even Cathy dropped some massive millions on it…. Then the floodgates opened up. That investment left me not worrying about money (even though I sold early and only took just under six figures profit).
I’m a public high school teacher for 16 years now and live a humble but happy life. I want a retirement home with an infinity pool overlooking the Mediterranean. It’s not a pipe dream any more.
I payed cash for a 10.000 $ engagement ring and wondered if I should be spending more… I pay off my fiancé’s credit cards without blinking an eye. 7000$ care repairs are annoying, but money is just a thing I have now.
Buffet said (in my words)- if you get on the train to money town even one stop before big money does, that makes all the difference
6. It’s a secret. There are 2500 (edit: somehow 2500 new people found my sub today so 5000 now) max people on Reddit paying attention to HIVE (the number is growing, but doesn’t matter until it become 10-15k from 2500). Meanwhile the company is a defense contractor for Canadian Ai.
I saved the best for those who actually read a full post.
7. Formally announced and making substantial progress on a 2.55 billion $ usd data center in Toronto. Land purchased. A 25 acre facility, to house 100,000 NVDA GPUs in the Ontario-Waterloo innovation corridor and Hive has finalized connection milestones to guarantee energy supply.
Set to be operational by 2nd half of 2027. That takes book value over 3.6billion- with no premium / hype value price in that takes share price -/+ 3.9x (12.84 a share) by mid 2027 with a book value of 1.
I’m sharing this on Friday July 3, 2026. Shares of HIVE are trading at 3.26.
Happy 4th of July!
I genuinely hope you get your Lambo.
I’ll drive my 2002 Maxima with 76.000 miles till I retire in 8 years or less. I have to be gentle on the accelerator or I peel out at stoplights.
I just want an infinity pool overlooking the Med and a frozen margarita machine to numb the pain of a slow death from skin cancer.
You do you.