$SPCX Baby Bear Play

Little $1,700 bet against SpaceX now that options are live. 17 total puts with September and December spreads. General thought is that the stock could crash to $20 and still be worth more than Boeing and Lockheed Martin combined. SpaceX is unprofitable, with an incredibly high price to sales ratio of 145x. Revenue is miniscule at \~$20 billion. Starlink is amazing in its own right, but rocketry is growing revenue slowly and AI is burning money. For reference: \- Lockheed Martin has a P/S ratio of \~1.6x \- Boeing has a P/S ratio of \~1.9x \- NVIDIA has a P/S ratio of \~20x \- Meta has a P/S ratio of \~7x \- Tesla has a P/S ratio of \~15x SpaceX is insanely overvalued, an order of magnitude moreso than Tesla. The market just needs a shock to realize it. Main catalysts are: \- First earnings call (September 2nd) \- 90-day insider lock-up expiration (September 10th) \- Regulatory scrutiny over accounting and valuation metrics (shout-out Elizabeth Warren) Further out ones include: \- Anthropic IPO \- OpenAI IPO These two could funnel hype away, or pop the AI bubble. If the AI leg of SpaceX dies in the water, I could absolutely see valuation returning to a typical 200 to 400 billion (still massive for aerospace). \- 180-day insider lock-up expiration (December 9th). And of course any wild erratic actions from Elon could tank the stock. It is worth mentioning index fund risk - billions of dollars WILL funnel into the stock soon. However, I believe active fund managers are currently buying shares to sell to the index funds when they push the market up. Arbitrage. Institutional frontrunners will leave afterwards, in my opinion. In August I believe there will be a severe lack of demand as a result, and the lock-up release in September will showcase that in full force. *The Float Reality Check:* The stock is currently skyrocketing because the float is so small. Today, the float is 5%, about 640 million shares. - In September, the float will skyrocket to 1.5 billion shares. - In December, the float will grow to 13 billion shares. TLDR: Little short position of a cash-burning hardware business masquerading as a $2.86T tech monopoly. The goal: profit from panic selling and multiple compression cycles as artificial scarcity ends as a result of closing lock-up periods and liquidity shifts to pure AI plays. And there's always a chance the AI bubble pops. We'll see how it plays out... The market can stay irrational, but it can't invent liquidity to absorb a 13 billion share flood. Reality is going to strike hard, and insiders are going to want to diversify. Manage your positions ruthlessly, everyone.