Costco impact to Celsius

My take: Costco’s announcement of Kirkland energy drinks caused a one-day 6.57% decline in Celsius’s share price, reflecting top-line concerns over new product competition. However, this underestimates the impact of recent distribution transitions that will insulate Celsius from Kirkland competition more than expected. In 2022, Costco represented 17% of all Celsius sales. Since then, the company has diversified distribution by partnering with Pepsi. Each following year, Costco as a % of sales has fallen, reaching 11% in December of 2025. Still, this figure has further room to fall; on the 1st of December, the Alani brand transferred to Pepsi distribution with full integration estimated for the end of March, while Rockstar integration should be complete by end of Q2 2026. Coupled with guidance of 100% distribution gains for Alani, 17% grocery shelf gains for Celsius, and the fact that the two brands are outpacing the energy category growth rate in convenience, which is still the predominant channel at 60%, at typically 20% monthly, Costco sales as a % of revenue will continue to structurally fall, minimizing Kirkland’s competitive impacts to Celsius’s sales.