Quoth the Raven
· QTR’s Fringe Finance
· July 22, 2026 at 10:58
· ⏱ 9 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The gold sell-off is a buying opportunity because central banks, especially the People's Bank of China, are increasing purchases as gold becomes cheaper, while miners remain highly profitable at current prices. The author argues that the long-term thesis for gold (de-dollarization, fiscal concerns) hasn't changed, making the setup for gold miners like GDX more attractive now than at the start of the year.
•Gold peaked at $5,589/oz on January 28 and trades around $4,000, 28% below the high; Q2 was gold's worst quarter since 2013.
•The People's Bank of China reported its largest monthly gold purchase since 2023 in June, its 20th consecutive month of adding to reserves.
•Central bank gold buying slowed to 863 tons in 2024 (down 21% from 2023's near-record 1,090 tons) due to price discipline, but Q1 2026 buying of 244 tons was above the five-year average.
•China added 40 tons in H1 2026 vs. 27 tons in all of 2025; the PBOC bought more gold in the month the price fell 30% from its high than any single month during the rally.
•74% of surveyed central banks expect the dollar's share of global reserves to be lower in five years.
•GDX is mentioned as the preferred ETF proxy for miners, with the author stating he likes the setup materially more than on January 1.
Author explicitly states 'I like the setup for miners, and GDX in particular, materially more today than I did on January 1,' indicating a bullish view on the gold miners ETF as central banks buy the
Author explicitly states 'I like the setup for miners, and GDX in particular, materially more today than I did on January 1,' indicating a bullish view on the gold miners ETF as central banks buy the dip and miners remain profitable.
Risk: Gold could be caught in a broader deleveraging event before the expected Fed liquidity support materializes, leading to further sell-offs in miners.