Quoth the Raven
· QTR’s Fringe Finance
· July 19, 2026 at 13:17
· ⏱ 10 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author argues that the current permissive regulatory environment under Trump is not permanent and that a Democratic win in 2028 (or even the 2026 midterms) would trigger a sharp repricing of speculative excesses, particularly in crypto and high-valuation growth stocks. Markets are complacently extrapolating the current 'free-for-all' indefinitely, leaving them vulnerable to a pendulum swing toward enforcement and accountability.
•The S&P 500 rallied to new all-time highs for 17 consecutive days despite no change in ground conditions.
•The author claims the current administration's philosophy appears to be 'pardon everyone who has ever committed obvious white collar fraud.'
•Crypto is identified as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the current regulatory environment, which could change rapidly under a Democratic administration.
•The author mentions 'trillion dollar IPOs for companies that aren't profitable' as an example of market excess.
•The author discloses he is attempting to no longer actively trade as of May 20, 2026, and has excluded himself from fantasy sports, sports betting, casinos, and prediction markets.
•The author admits he often gets things wrong and loses money, and writes posts 'after a couple beers sometimes.'