Quoth the Raven
· QTR’s Fringe Finance
· June 03, 2026 at 16:01
· ⏱ 10 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author argues that being right about market analysis does not guarantee profitable execution, leading him to abandon active trading in favor of idea generation and patience. He introduces the 'Permanent Distortion Theory,' claiming historical market relationships no longer hold due to passive flows, options activity, and central bank intervention, making fundamental investing harder and rewarding inaction over constant trading.
•The author says his blog's '26 Stocks I’m Watching For 2026' are beating the S&P 500 by more than 10% this year.
•He describes today's market as a 'digital casino on cocaine,' citing zero-day options, prediction markets, sports betting, crypto leverage, and 24/7 trading.
•He states that 'objective truth and market outcomes are two completely different things' and that 'markets don’t reward correctness. They reward execution.'
•He advocates 'Be right and sit tight' as the core lesson, arguing that great returns come from doing nothing after doing the hard work of being right.
•He introduces the 'Permanent Distortion Theory' — historical relationships from 1920–2000 may no longer apply due to passive investing dominance, options-driven price moves, and central bank suppression of volatility.
•He concludes that traditional fundamental investing is now dramatically more difficult because being correct on valuation or fraud is insufficient if liquidity and market attention are elsewhere.