Why you won’t get a flying car

Noah Smith · Noahpinion · September 03, 2026 at 09:55 · ⏱ 25 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that 'engineerism'—the belief that technologies should be built simply because they are possible—ignores economic demand and market realities. It posits that the future of economic growth lies in dematerialization (software and services) and the solar/battery revolution, rather than retrofuturist physical engineering feats like flying cars or nuclear-powered abundance.
  • •Engineerism is defined as the belief that if a technology can be built, it ought to be built, often ignoring consumer demand and economic viability.
  • •Despite claims that cold fusion research was suppressed, multiple well-funded efforts failed to reproduce it, including a $20 million Japanese government project, an $18 million Toyota project, and a $10 million Google project.
  • •U.S. primary energy use per person has fallen since 2000, yet per capita GDP grew by 40% due to 'dematerialization' and a shift toward services.
  • •France's heavy reliance on nuclear power has not resulted in cheap energy, with electricity costing 28 cents per kWh compared to 18 cents in the U.S.
  • •Solar power has won the technological energy race due to stupendous cost declines and cheaper batteries, leading China to build solar far faster than nuclear.
  • •Flying cars face a severe demand problem, as intermediate travel distances of 150 to 500 miles are too rare for most consumers to justify the vehicle's expense.
  • •Young Americans traveled fewer than half as many miles per day in 2022 as they did two decades earlier, substituting physical travel with internet communications and digital entertainment.
Read time 25 min
Length 25,537 chars
Category macro
Ideas
Noah Smith Economist; ex-columnist, Bloomberg Opinion
The author explicitly names EHang's pilotless VTOL craft but dismisses it as a 'niche type of transportation,' arguing that mass market demand for flying cars is fundamentally limited by the rarity of
The author explicitly names EHang's pilotless VTOL craft but dismisses it as a 'niche type of transportation,' arguing that mass market demand for flying cars is fundamentally limited by the rarity of 150-500 mile trips and the lack of a broad-based value proposition. Risk: If autonomous VTOL networks achieve regulatory approval and scale faster than expected, lowering per-mile costs to compete with ground transport, EHang could see significant upside.
EH
Noah Smith Economist; ex-columnist, Bloomberg Opinion
The author highlights that solar has 'won the technological race' with stupendous cost declines, noting that even nuclear-friendly China is building solar far faster than nuclear because intermittency
The author highlights that solar has 'won the technological race' with stupendous cost declines, noting that even nuclear-friendly China is building solar far faster than nuclear because intermittency issues have been solved by cheap batteries. Risk: Geopolitical tariffs on Chinese solar components or changes in renewable subsidies could impact global solar deployment rates.
TAN
Noah Smith Economist; ex-columnist, Bloomberg Opinion
The author challenges the economic viability of a nuclear renaissance, pointing out that France's nuclear-heavy grid yields expensive electricity (28 cents/kWh) and that reactor costs in China haven't
The author challenges the economic viability of a nuclear renaissance, pointing out that France's nuclear-heavy grid yields expensive electricity (28 cents/kWh) and that reactor costs in China haven't fallen since 2010, making it uncompetitive with solar. Risk: Rising baseline power demand from AI datacenters could force hyperscalers to fund nuclear deployments regardless of the higher per-kWh cost.
URA
Noah Smith Economist; ex-columnist, Bloomberg Opinion
The author praises the electric vehicle revolution, specifically noting that Chinese engineers have 'created electric cars so cheap and high-quality that they’re conquering the global auto market.'
The author praises the electric vehicle revolution, specifically noting that Chinese engineers have 'created electric cars so cheap and high-quality that they’re conquering the global auto market.' Risk: Western protectionist policies and 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs could severely limit their total addressable market outside of domestic and emerging economies.
BYDDY
More from Noahpinion
Roundup #87: Technology BAD!!
Sep 01, 02:26
In defense of Asian American art
Aug 30, 00:15
Here’s how we’re all going to die
Aug 28, 09:48
The death of Market Street
Aug 26, 09:12
What if our biggest problems aren’t economic?
Aug 24, 08:46

This newsletter, published September 03, 2026, features Noah Smith discussing EH, TAN, URA, BYDDY. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Noah Smith  · Tickers: EH, TAN, URA, BYDDY