Citrini
· Citrini Research
· June 14, 2026 at 18:25
· ⏱ 4 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that recent macro concerns (inflation, rate hikes, strong payrolls) are overblown and will ease, while the US economy remains fundamentally strong. The recent stock market sell-off is a healthy, overdue flush of excessive leverage in momentum names, and the bull market should continue with higher volatility and 10-15% drawdowns over the next few months.
•May payrolls beat consensus (172,000 vs 88,000 estimate), but the article claims labor data overstate underlying strength.
•ECB hiked 25bps and threatened another in July; the Fed’s April vote was an unusual 8-4 split with three members wanting to remove the easing bias.
•Inflation concerns from the Iran/Hormuz energy shock have peaked, core readings are stable, and there is no wage-driven excess demand.
•Short-term rate expectations jumped over 100bps since the Iran conflict began on Feb 28; SOFR futures priced rate hikes for the first time since early 2023.
•The recent sell-off was concentrated in overbought tech hardware/momentum names after seven straight weeks of gains.
•The article expects a continued melt-up into late summer but warns of higher incidence of 10-15% drawdowns off highs over the next 3-4 months.