Citrini
· Citrini Research
· April 05, 2026 at 17:40
· ⏱ 6 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is far more nuanced than a binary open/closed, with new informal rules being established by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, leading to persistent disruption and uncertainty for global oil shipping. For markets, this implies ongoing risk premia in tanker rates and energy security plays, but no specific actionable trade ideas are given.
•The Strait of Hormuz is a 54-mile passage between Iran and Oman through which the global economy flows, or doesn't.
•Analyst #3 was detained by the Coast Guard and had his phone confiscated after swimming in the strait and being intercepted.
•AIS shipping data is missing roughly half of what actually transits the strait on any given day, according to the analyst's on-the-ground observation.
•The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is writing new rules on who can and cannot pass through the strait, with concrete information gathered during the trip.
•The analyst traveled 18 miles from the Iranian coast in a speedboat with no GPS, while Shahed drones flew overhead and Revolutionary Guard patrol boats operated nearby.
•The trip involved $15,000 in cash, a Pelican case with recording equipment disguised, and crossing into Oman's Musandam province to reach Khasab and get on the water.